Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Brohamer lecture tapes (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11213)

Bill V. 08-01-2017 02:40 PM

Claimed
 
1 Attachment(s)
Yes that looks like a dump

And the 6 was claimed. She went off as the 1.20/1 fav

Attachment 43848

Bill V. 08-01-2017 02:51 PM

here is the winner
 
1 Attachment(s)
Also was claimed

But wins at a nice price
I think when I retire I'm just going to look for this pattern

Attachment 43850

DaveEdwards 08-01-2017 03:11 PM

Interesting Pattern
 
Thanks for posting the result Bill. Interesting point on the class move.

Further to the class move factor, it also raced too close to a pace it just wasn't comfortable with in line 1. Line 9 (admittedly in the slop) shows a similar performance against such a fast 1st 2 furlongs.
Coupled with the easy throw out of the E types and a too generous view of the 7, this horse was actually a solid bet.

Still that's the benefit of regression analysis. An easy area to neglect for me, but there's something to learn from every losing bet & that's for sure.

DaveEdwards 08-01-2017 03:12 PM

I'll bet the claimers of the 6 are now scratching their heads wondering what on earth they've bought into.

DaveEdwards 08-01-2017 03:34 PM

Fl r6
 
There has just been another in R6 at FL. You won't believe the price of the fav. Will post the PP & result once Equipbase have posted.
Tom Brohamer thank you!

DaveEdwards 08-01-2017 03:54 PM

Fl r6
 
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Check the price on the number 3. As Tom says, some of these do win, but they are always underplayed.
I admit my posts on this point are getting a bit boring now. I think the case is proven here. Interestingly the point Bill made to me previously about the RC of the race. With this horse it is clearly a massive drop.

Not claimed either.

Time for a celebratory cup of tea!

DaveEdwards 08-01-2017 03:55 PM

Underlayed, not underplayed!! Overplayed of anything!
Sorry, my typing is all over the shop today

DaveEdwards 08-01-2017 04:31 PM

Just to sum up. This 3 doesn't jump of the page as having had a strong run in it's last race against the competition it faced, but it was definitely stronger than the horses it was due to face today.
Negative for me.
From a minor FL stakes race to a 3.5k claimer in 5 races with a big layoff. I think the only person making money with this horse was the Vet.

Ted Craven 09-12-2017 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven (Post 110653)
Mark, absolutely! If you could send it to me at the address HERE, I'll scan it and post it in the Manuals section of the site. Then return it to you. Thank you so much for your generosity!

Ted

Quote:
<table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="6" border="0"><tbody><tr><td class="alt2" style="border:1px inset"> Originally Posted by cratman http://paceandcap.com/forums/images/...s/viewpost.gif
I may be able to get a copy in the next couple of weeks. I believe I have it in my house and need to find it. If so I would like to sent it to Ted so he can post it on the site, or would be happy to send a copy if Ted is not interested.

I am interested in a book on Ultra Scan by Bridges. Please let me know if anyone has a copy of this book.

Thanks,

Mark

</td></tr></tbody></table>
Thanks to Cratman (Mark), we now have the Brohamer Lecture Series Manualincluded in the Sartin Library to compliment the audio series.

Here is the Manual: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11313

And here are the Audios: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6095

Enjoy, and thanks Mark!

Ted

DaveEdwards 09-13-2017 02:34 AM

Thank you Mark and Ted.
Forever grateful.

Lectures tapes on in the car for today's commute to work!


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