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-   -   Parx model information (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13475)

Bill Lyster 01-16-2021 01:09 PM

Parx model information
 
PARX model observations
Model covers all of November and December 2020 and is being updated for January 2021 races as they happen, given a day or two later (updated thru 1/12/21).

There are 280 races in this study and only 6 horses won from layoffs more than 90 days. Five of the six were in sprints, only one winner with such a long layoff from routes. 175 sprints with 8 wins cutting back from routes <5%; 7 occurred in 6.5 or 7 furlong races. 105 routes with 17 sprint to route winners, with 12 winners stretching out from 7 furlong pacelines.

Overall there were 2.1% winners from horses with over 90 day layoffs and place horses with over 90 day layoffs hit the board only 1.9% of the time.


PL and BPP info for all maidens at all distances
Of the 51 maiden races where I had PL & BPP data saved 38 were top 3 PL and 42 were top 3 BPP, 74% and 82% respectively. This includes 3 of 3 first time starter (FTS) winners. The FTS winners were ranked in the top 2 PL. All first time winners came in sprint races.

Ted Craven 01-16-2021 01:19 PM

Thanks for these observations from your modeling Bill!


Ted

Lt1 01-16-2021 07:38 PM

Just like to point out that BPP doesn't show a ranking for a FTS. They are listed after horses with pacelines in post position order. This is an area where PL shines.
Tim

Bill Lyster 01-16-2021 09:12 PM

Listed by distance where I had PL and BPP info at Parx from all of November and December and January thru 1/12/21.

7 races at 5.5 F, PL 6 wins, BPP 5
17 races at 6.0 F, PL 14 wins, BPP 14 wins
2 races at 6.5 F, PL 1 win, BPP 2 wins
8 races at 7.0 F, PL 6 wins, BPP 5 wins
2 races at 8.0 F, PL 2 wins, BPP 2 wins
11 races at 8.3 F, PL 7 wins, BPP 8 wins
2 races at 8.5 F, PL 1 win, BPP 2 wins
2 races at 9.0 F, PL 1 win, BPP 2 wins

PL wins 38/51 = 74.5%
BPP 40/51 = 78.4% (note corrected win percentage)

Lt1 01-17-2021 10:58 AM

Hi Bill. Thanks for you work and input. Just to add an observation I found Bris pp to be stronger in turf race then Profit line. This off sets the advantage PL has in mdn races with FTS.
Tim

Bill Lyster 01-17-2021 12:38 PM

Tim,
Thanks for the heads up. I checked the SA Turf routes that I had so far (didnt assemble two days worth) and found BPP to have the winner in 20/29 races in the top 3 BPP.

Not bad for one factor!

darmar 01-17-2021 04:18 PM

Great info Bill. Since I was introduced to PL and PP my capping and my ROI have improved drastically.
I would not consider working a card if I didn't have access to these valuable products!
Thanks again and Great Skill always.
Darryl

Lt1 01-19-2021 10:33 PM

Since we are on the subject on Parx models I thought I pass along my woking models for all dirt dists at Parx. Info includes todays'1-19 results. Just keep in mind that these models are based on MY contender and paceline selections and most likely will differ from those being kept by other members.
Tim






Parx Dirt Models




,


Tue, Jan 19 at 7:46 PM

Here are the current Win dirt models including todays' results. Models are based on primary factors with the ones having the most top 2 ratings considered dominating.


DIST EP/LP DOMINAING FACTOR[s] Most top 2 ranks Range of % Med
5.0 EP CPR,FW,VDC 67.4-70.0
5,5 EVEN CPR,VDC 67.0-69.7
6.0 LP FX,VDC 68.4-70,2
6.5 LP CPR,VDC 67.9-69.7
7.0 EP CPR,VDC 68.2-69.7
8.0 EP TT,FX,VDC 67.5-69.4
8.3 EP FX,VDC 67.3-69.3
8.5 LP FX,VDC 67.0-68.5
9.0 LP VDC 67-4-68.4
10.0 LP HIDDEN ENERGY 67.2-68.6
12.0 EP CPR,FX 66.7-68.6
Tim

Bill Lyster 01-20-2021 12:12 AM

Parx info all distances since november 2020 thru today
 
1 Attachment(s)
Attachment 49546


i Modeled all distances from Parx since the start of November. Obviously not all factors are relevant. I am still working on that part of it.

I found it useful to divide the field by top EPR and other and classify factors according to whether they were top 3 or 4 EPR or farther off pace. You can see from the data what the relative early and late breakdown is by distance.

Have fun with this.

Bill Lyster 01-20-2021 09:38 AM

TIm,

I forgot to say thanks for sharing this info. I enclosed my model from November thru yesterday in another post. I appreciate all your work and certainly your many successes.

Bill


Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1 (Post 131486)
Since we are on the subject on Parx models I thought I pass along my woking models for all dirt dists at Parx. Info includes todays'1-19 results. Just keep in mind that these models are based on MY contender and paceline selections and most likely will differ from those being kept by other members.
Tim






Parx Dirt Models




,


Tue, Jan 19 at 7:46 PM

Here are the current Win dirt models including todays' results. Models are based on primary factors with the ones having the most top 2 ratings considered dominating.


DIST EP/LP DOMINAING FACTOR[s] Most top 2 ranks Range of % Med
5.0 EP CPR,FW,VDC 67.4-70.0
5,5 EVEN CPR,VDC 67.0-69.7
6.0 LP FX,VDC 68.4-70,2
6.5 LP CPR,VDC 67.9-69.7
7.0 EP CPR,VDC 68.2-69.7
8.0 EP TT,FX,VDC 67.5-69.4
8.3 EP FX,VDC 67.3-69.3
8.5 LP FX,VDC 67.0-68.5
9.0 LP VDC 67-4-68.4
10.0 LP HIDDEN ENERGY 67.2-68.6
12.0 EP CPR,FX 66.7-68.6
Tim



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