BVD rating
 

This is not an offical RDSS readout
This is a home-brewed calculation I use to rate First Time Starters
or horses that are coming off layoffs of over 40 day

I have had many successes. I first began using this rating last summer when I was playing the daily pick 4 at Del Mar

I kept track or all the notations ad workout ratings and speed rating
for FTS and layoff horses, But nothing showed me any kind of advantage
Some notations pointed to winners more than others but that did me no good because most of the horses had the same notations.
Rating the WR or workout rating worked well most of the time but
I was not sure how this rating was calculated.
The speed ratings added together, Well I am not a fan of man-made speed figures so I ignored them. The speed of a workout is not as important as frequency of workouts.
I wanted to find a way to rate the last two workouts only!
and those two workouts had to be within 21 days of today's race.

I notice the little % notation next to the workouts, To me this looked like a grade given to the workout against all the other horses that worked out that day. I decided to focus on this % grade number,
So I began to add the last two percentage numbers for each FTS or layoff horse, the 3 highest figures are my contenders or an indication to use a plus paceline for a long layoff horse.
I won a pick 4 at Del Mar with Ted last year He asked me how I rated the race? it was a 2 year-old maiden race and every horse was a FTS.

I used 4 horses that leg , I just took the 4 horses with the highest total of the last two workout % numbers

At Saratoga I used it on Pace and Cap day Ted remembered my rating and
said he would use it and he named it the BVD rating! :D

So there it is the unofficial BVD Rating
Bill Varone Deduction --:cool:

I did this yesterday in the 3rd at Belmont
and Ted did two ( along with the morning line)
We nailed the race win exacta trifecta super

Here is an example o how I rated the horses Horse 1 had the highest total of 180 BVD

It won the race

Attachment 44286

Very,very,very cool and imaginative thinking Bill!!!!!

THANK YOU for sharing your hard work with us!!!!

:)

Bill

Nice job

Jeff

Thank you Bill. I remember you hitting that winner at the Spa.
Tim

Very cool. At first I thought maybe it was a pick that you pulled out of your underwear... 🤣

Bvd
 

Bill, thanks for sharing this with all of us here at PaceandCap.
This is what we are all about, helping others become better handicappers.
rmath

So, do you rate all horses in races with layoffs or with FTS and look especially hard at the top 4 OR do you just rate the layoffs and FTS that way?

Layoffs are greater than 40 days?

Thanks

Thank You
 

Bill L. I just rate first-time starters or horses off 42 days or more

I made a typo 42 days is 6 weeks
I must have been thinking about my bible studies when I typed 40 days

Tim Rich and Rmath Thankyou for your nice comments

Yes, Tim, That race at Saratoga was a success for the win but I boxed my top
three BVD horses and one of them was scratched at the gate the other two ran well but came in first and third.
So I did not win the exacta

Jeebs I am in meetings with my lawyers. If BVD underwear company
sues me I will use George Harrison's excuse with My Sweet Lord

"It came to me unknowingly"

He's So Fine
https://youtu.be/rinz9Avvq6A

Mixed with Oh Happy Day

https://youtu.be/hzj3pOdCOqU

Equals My Sweet Lord

https://youtu.be/0kNGnIKUdMI


The best to you all
Bill

Yesterday at Prx I found 10 horses that fit the requirements. 3won 1 finished 2nd 1 3rd 5 finished out. The good news is all 3 winners had the most points so they ranked #1 and returned $12.60,$12.80 & $12.80. The place and show horses also had the top number. All were in my top 5 contenders. I will keep tracking this angle and update the group as to results.
Tim

Sorry, don't mean to be dense. I am still struggling with the application.

I understand that you rate 42 day layoffs and FTS, but what happens when half the field has raced within 42 days and the other half has not? For the 'has not' half you calculate the BVD info. How do you integrate the BVD info and the race info developed from the horses that have raced in 42 days or less? Do you include the two best that are current (42 or less days off) and the top 3 BVD's?

Or is this meant to be utilized in only races with all FTS or layoff horses?

what if a horse has more than 3 works in last 21days - best two of three?

Thanks