Quadrater - Great For Longshots
 

I think I originally posted this in the wrong place. My apologies.

Another Example In Hindsight TAM 03-29-17
 

TAM 03-29-17
Race (1)
Test Race

Quad
 

Hi Bill

Quad rater was one of Doc's favorites. But like KGEN it was quickly replaced
with programs that once again used the basic primary readouts, EPR LPR CPR TT HID FW and FX.
The problem with Quad Rater and Kgen was people modeled the numbers and set too low of a parameter for winning horses.
Doc felt although the readouts found horses no other program could,
The numbers were unaccepted by the group as a hole. and was quickly replaced
However the Pace of Race/ Pace of Horse calculations and the long shot
detector readouts were kept and used in all later programs

Good Skill
Bill

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Hi Bill,

I hope you are feeling better. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.

I have to say that I am in full agreement with "The Doc".
The program will find horses like no other program could.
The majority of the herd looks to find the obvious winners and lean towards the favorites. Horses with odds of 4-1 or less win approximately 70% of the races. In my opinion, this is why 98% of the public are losers.
I look for the remaining 30%. You don't need a high percentage hit rate to be successful.

Doc's concept of Chaos and his Long Shot Rating ( LS/R) was right on the money. Why he abandoned it leaves me some questions in my mind. Possibly is was too good for public consumption or not very well understood by the majority.
Chaos is a hard pill to swallow for most. It is disorder that eventually displays a meaningful pattern.
Doc's thinking was innovative and well ahead of it's time.
The bottom line for me is that you cannot win in the long run at this game betting on low price horses.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Bill,

I hope you are feeling better. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.

I have to say that I am in full agreement with "The Doc".
The program will find horses like no other program could.
The majority of the herd looks to find the obvious winners and lean towards the favorites. Horses with odds of 4-1 or less win approximately 70% of the races. In my opinion, this is why 98% pf the public are losers.
I look for the remaining 30%. You don't need a high percentage hit rate to be successful.

Doc's concept of Chaos and his Long Shot Rating ( LS/R) was right on the money. Why he abandoned it leaves me some questions in my mind. Possibly is was too good for public consumption or not very well understood by the majority.
Chaos is a hard pill to swallow for most. It is disorder that eventually displays a meaningful pattern.
Doc's thinking was innovative and well ahead of it's time.
The bottom line for me is that you cannot win in the long run at this game betting on low price horses.