Arlington Millions
 

Race 11 10 furlongs Turf

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Horses
 

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Horses
 

5 6 7 8

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Horses
 

9

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readouts
 

TPR Segs RX2


I will go with 11 3 10 2

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Using the FTL guidelines there is just a single contender Money Multiplier



Neil

Hope
 

Thanks Neil

I hope FT L can post a look

Feel better FTL

I see very little wrong with the #11 Oscar Performance, and that would be my wager - if I were going to make a single one, which I'm not. I'd bet on #10 Robert Bruce as well, but not both -- because #3 and #8 also look decent. Too much unknown for me.

I guess I don't understand FTL's guidelines well enough to understand why #8 Money Multiplier is the only contender.

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Ted

I always have fond memories of the Arlington Million - it was my first thoroughbred race I ever attended, in 1981, in its inaugural run, won by the great John Henry.

I think I was hooked from there on. (Plus, my host made a lot of money and that initial 'free taste' was very compelling ;))

Ted

Nice race, as usual! I'm glad this is running NOT on the same weekend in August as the Alabama Stakes in Saratoga - I often can't focus on it while I'm there as much as I'd like.



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Ted

Congrats Irod Ortiz Happy birthday
 

Chad Brown takes the exacta !

10 3 6 5

The winner #10 He is a Red Scan next race winner


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As to a more detailed analysis - well, I sure like the number of rank 1s and rank 2s on the top 2 horses from the main line scores: BL, VDC, Rx. Also the 1 and 2 ranks from ProfitLine and Prime Power. And the public Odds, and the PW tote ratio (on the #11).

The Top 4 all seemed like they could get the distance before, and against top competition, so no disqualifiers there.


In my modelling, Rx3 continues to be a great factor when supported by recency and tote. I am also liking the array of 4 high-level factors in VDC, CSR, PL and BPP (Prime Power) as described by Rmath.


That's what informed my analysis. I have also been dutching 2 or 3 horses to Win - this combo of #11 and #10 returns 54 - 57%, a bit low, and I like to hit around 60% of the time at those net odds. The #3 and #8 made me feel uncomfortable - thus no bet.


Ted

way to go Ted
 

I can't wait to have the RX3 again

Great job getting a nice square price on the 10


My 3 placed so we did good :o

Arl Million contenders on Synthesis #11 Oscar Perform #10 Robert Bruce #3 Almanaar
had 3 foreign horses with no recent pace lines so I passed..Doc told us in one of the Follow Ups to bet those foreign horses or pass the race.....WOW This is the second time this year that I've seen Chad Brown run Win Place Show in a stakes race...this guy is almost unbeatable on the turf.....couldn't use Money Multiplier in the Million....horse didn't have the numbers......