Another FWIW Survey
 

This time I decided to check out how horses with balances over 8 fared on the dirt. The tracks used were Sar,Parx,TDN, and Del. I found 100 such horses and here are the results.
Horses Winners Place Show Out
100 12 6 10 72
Once again Docs' stats from yrs ago still stand up today. Since most of the tracks I play have little to no turf racing I could only get a small sample. Here are those stats
Horses Winners Place Show Out
12 2 0 0 10
For those who worry about sample sizes feel free to to do your own surveys
but based on my past history with these types of surveys I believe the numbers will remain within 2-3%[turf races tend have a higher win %] of the above numbers.
Tim

Good info Tim, thanks again for sharing.

Anytime Bill. All I'm really doing is attempting to reaffirm things that Doc and others shared with us many yrs ago. Racing has changed but some things still stand the test of time.
Tim

Is this over 8 after contender selection or before?

After.
Tim

So, with 4 contenders, statistically they should hit 25%, but instead it is less than half that. Does balance refer to the difference between EP and LP?

Balance refers to the sum of the ranks of the E/ep Early Energy Potential and L/ep Late Energy Potential. These measures of Early and Late energy were factors Sartin commented were perhaps better than the classic EPR and LPR ratings from the TPR system. In RDSS they are found on the Energy screen.

With 4 remaining contenders, no one would have a Balance exceeding 8; in a field with say 5 contenders, horses with 2 ranks of 4 and 5 or both ranks 5s would exceed a Balance of 8 and thus be good candidates for further culling. It's the (cumulative) Balance between E and L (not likely to steal the lead and survive - too little E, and not likely to carry their energy into the 3rd Fraction to close - too little L.)

The difference between EP and LP in Sartin-speak is called Early/Late Differential and is found on the TPR screen: it is EPR - LPR and is the surplus of Early over Late, or vice versa. We use it to see if a horse is TOO Early or TOO Late, or which one is the LONE counter-energy - who disburses their energy most opposite to the pack, and can pick up the pieces of a fast pace OR be a lone Early energy horse (either a positional front runner or a Early Presser or Presser with a typical energy disbursement pattern better than apparent front runners). Or other observable energy disbursement patterns with clues to how the race will shape up (if the chosen paceline is not atypical for the horse on today's surface and distance).

Ted

Thanks, Ted, for the extensive response.

At one time Sartin was putting in all horses and that's what we did back around 1990. He than advocated scratching from the lowest Total Energy or TPR to the top 5. His theory was that Tot. En. was class. Most winners do come from the top 3 and decline thereafter.

So during that era Balance was a great tool to eliminate horses. Keep in mind that Balance rankings are another way to view pace, whether Total or TPR, just broken down to two parts in EP & LP or you can say E/EP & L /EP. Actually E/EP & L/EP is better , trying to keep it simple here. Essentially just a form of TPR which most can comprehend due to its simplicity here and its rankings. This is about as de-complicated as it can be made.

Now that we have an understanding of it, lets put it in context. When putting in all horses it was a valued Factor back in the day. Also back then field size was much larger. Fast forward to today and I totally agree its not a Prime or even secondary factor today. Unless of course you put in all the horses and the field is large. When putting in only 5 contenders its nullified because it'll only eliminate 1 horse at best. That eliminated horse can be also eliminated on several other Factors, because its going to come up worse on several other Primary readouts.

I don't use it and haven't for many years. With putting in only 5 true contenders it just isn't a viable Factor. Many other Primary or key Factors will eliminate that same horse and even a 4th horse. Note: I don't recommend scratching down to 3 horses. Just scratch them in your head and consider them non- contenders.

Bottom line is forget about Balance, the game has changed and with proper contenders its effectiveness is over. If Sartin were alive today he would cast it in the pile of no longer effective, along with Models, track Profiles etc.

Mitch44

While my good friend has his opinions on what Doc may or may not have done if he were here I take a slightly different approach. While true contender and representative paceline selections is paramount I do use models and have very good success with them. As for track profiles the beaten lengths at the 2c is still a useful tool in determining which contenders can be tossed for win. I posted the bal info for those the keep more then 4 horses for exotic purposes. Everyone is free to do what they want with various info posted on the site.