Bill V goes the Extra Mile
 

This is a race that Bill V and I discussed from a few days ago. I'm sorry for having sat on it that long, but I did want to post it because it is a good illustration of what is involved in handicapping when you go that extra mile.

I used the last line for the winner, #1. It is a good "(+)" line. For those of you who have followed my posts, you know that I will always use the last line if it is a qualifying line, meaning a race where the horse ran 1st, 2nd or 3rd or if it showed good early speed at the first two calls (even if it faded in the stretch) or if it made a good middle move from the first call to the second call to be withing 2 lengths of the leader at the second call.

As you will see on the segments screen, the #1 horse had a substantial advantage at the first call. This tells me the horse will be able to control the pace.

But here is the real reason I am posting this.
In the conversation I had with Bill V., he told me he used line 2 for the #1 horse and he explained the reason for using that line.

Bill said he keeps all the old files, so he went back and looked at the last race for the #1 horse. What he found was a race with a lot of early speed in it and that was the reason for the early pressure put on the #1 horse. With that in mind, Bill rationalized that the race today was pretty much devoid of early pace pressure and so on that basis felt line 2 was more appropriate. This is what I call, going the extra mile!!!

Here are my screen shots followed by a screen shot of the #1 horse.

By the way, the #1 horse paid $16.60.

Ftl
 

Thanks FTL

I wanted to show the readouts that I used to support my
betting decisions

I don't do many 1 mile races but I check them all
Usually 1 mile races have too many issues with sprinters mixed in
In todays race I saw the sprinters had no EPR speed in the route races
they had tried in the past
I was confident that none of the sprinters were fast enough to
beat the route horses
This does not happen very often, thats why I almost always
pass 1 mile races

Line 1

FTL has written often how when a early horse can not get the lead
its third fraction is not a true readout

I do my own ESP analysis of every non maiden race

The nice thing about this race was I only had 1 Early horse
Attachment 33447



Horse 1 also is a E7 the 7 is the Quirin speed rating.
Any horse with a 7 or 8 is sure to want the lead
I have marked horse 1's PP's and It always breaks well and
passes horses to get the lead

Attachment 33445

PHASE 1

I use Phase 1 Its a true Sartin Methodology program
and its all right here in RDSS


AS FTL points out Line 1 is a plus within a zero race.
but because its LPR is so weak its TPR will be weak

When I see a Early horse with this type of line 1 paceline
I check its EPR and LPR balance. I compared its plus race
balance to that line and I saw it tied way to hard to hold
on to the lead it got in the first fraction.
I saw the unbalanced Early ( for this horse)
by the big red stick with a +19 and in its other plus races
Its normal EPR is about 81 In line 1 it ran a 87

Since Line 1 was a (+) line and the horse is coming right back
after only 9 days I wanted to check what happend in the
Jan 5th race
I went back to that race and since I had done the ESP
for that race that day, I saw that in the Jan 5th Match UP
The 1 horse was in with 4 other strong QSP Early horses.
Since it got the lead in that tough match up I felt that
Line 2 even though it was a muddy line would be more
indicitive of what would happen today
Attachment 33446


Here is my Phase 1 analysis only these 4 horses were
contenders.

Since I do my own ESP analysis for every horse I saw the 1 would not
have to work that hard to get and hold the lead in todays match up
Attachment 33448

Having access to all charts for the last 20+ years for free is a huge advantage, for just this reason. You don't even have to download them anymore. It can pay off to take the time to do a little research.

Bill,


Great detailed analysis....very informative for most to follow along with your reasons of the pace scenario...

One question, you mentioned that the #3 was unbalanced in energy distribution in phase 1...... How did you concluded this???......personally, I would have looked at percent
median .....


Thanks..:)

Percent
 

Thank you Lone Speed and Tom


Lone speed Percent Med is a good readout. Its a vital Sartin readout.
The calculation is the percentage of the horses total energy it uses in the first two fractions added together
Doc used to suggest using percent medium by modeling
winning horses that fit a range of about .72 from a average, based on hi lo and average total energy
The reason I use Phase 1 is whereas Percent Med measures the horse relative to its total energy pace line. Phase 1 measures the pace line only.
Its a very simple readout and its intention was to be simple.

The graphics of the Early Late sticks really help me see both too early and too late pace lines.


I called the 3 as unbalanced early because The 1 and 7 had such a big advantage on EPR
The 3 is a big blue stick - which means it is Late actually in the graphic I made below you can see how RDSS as even called the 3 a Late ESP

What we all must learn and accept is that the EPR and any Early Pace rating including %med, is that they rate the race with 3/4's of the race already run. The 3rd fraction is vital but if a horse is too far behind at the EP it ( usually ) will not have enough time and its also may have traffic issues


Anyway The 3 has the best Total Pace Rating because of its strong LPR of over 93 If this was a turf race or a track that favors Late pace the 3 has a chance but a EPR under 75 is way to slow to win most dirt races

This is Percent Medium
Attachment 33454