Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - Pizzolla and "Two Excuse" method

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- - Pizzolla and "Two Excuse" method (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11422)

Quote:

Originally Posted by DontSayDont (Post 113595)

Omission of material can be as misleading as misleading statements. Pizzolla in his book DOES NOT advocate just a "Two Excuse" method of pace line selection. He firsts states use the first line, unless. Similar to the Sartin method in the paceline manual. He gives this a mnenomic (sp?), LASST. If we look at what the letters stand for, LAyoff, Surface, Structure, Trouble. Structure I believe is sprint to route, route to sprint etc. Trouble is major trouble but not 3 wide, boxed in or comments that may or may not have hindered the progress of the horse in the race.

Using just those 4 that he mentions is used by many handicappers would put the paceline back at the 5th race. Very similar to what is promoted in one of the above posts.

What then follows in the book is what he calls the dirty dozen. Eight more minor reasons to think about going back another race but just one reason is not enough. The handicapper should have 2 reasons from those eight to continue going back a race. He also mentions that those eight are HIS reasons and other handicappers might have others and to use what works for you.

Just to clarify. I am not advocating anyone use his methods and I personally DO NOT use any of his software but purchased his book because when I originally purchased The New Pace Makes The Race it did not include the writings by Pizzolla and I felt extremely disappointed as I had read what Bill V. wrote about the fulcrum horse that was described in the original book along with other teachings I hoped would be rewarding to read.

I am pleased with the information that I have read, just as I am pleased with the information I have read in the other 15 - 20 books I have purchased. There is quality information in every one and there are reasons to disagree with other information given within those bindings.

Ray

I wouldn't necessarily say that I was misleading. The chapter I posted about contains the info re: Two Excuse. However, the chapter doesn't devote itself entirely to it, and is merely his guide to paceline selection, covering LASST, using the entire PPs, and highlighting the "Dirty Dozen" reasons to open up the proverbial "form cycle window" to find the best line of the window.

To Mitch and Tim's point, Pizzolla's aim is finding boxcar payouts. It is a high variance strategy susceptible to a lot of bad runs, so someone who is either 1) undercapitalized and/or 2) lacks the constitution to withstand a "cold deck" is going to have a difficult time "waiting out" the payouts.

Re: BLAM (Black Magic) and his new update (Valuecapper) - They have their own legion of followers who claim to do well. However, the overhead (nearly $2000 for program and tapes and other assortments, plus over $100 a month for unlimited data) is steep. Someone I know has BLAM and has complained that it does them no good as far as multi-race betting is concerned, because Pizzolla's main aim is attacking each race individually. To each their own I guess.

Quote:

He gives this a mnenomic (sp?), LASST. If we look at what the letters stand for, LAyoff, Surface, Structure, Trouble. Structure I believe is sprint to route, route to sprint etc. Trouble is major trouble but not 3 wide, boxed in or comments that may or may not have hindered the progress of the horse in the race.

I would suggest adding one more S to this - slow paced race. You will not get a true picture of a horse's ability if he was the benefit of a slow pace, or if he was compromised by one. I always use slow pace as a valid excuse to go past that line. Same for a fast pace meltdown. That situation, even more so, can give you a good price next time out with an alleged bad paceline on top of the charts.

They alluded to this in PMTR hard cover in the article about using the fulcrum to make an excuse.

Good thread!

Excellent post, When I visited Doc, we worked a few races in his office.
I was still pretty new to the methodology.He had me select my pacelines. As I did he looked over my shoulder, Doc entered my lines into his computer.
I remember one race, The horses last three races all did not show much,
I was unsure of which line to uses so I used the F6 (perceptor) paceline indicator It selected line 1. So that is the line I used.
Doc only made a few comments while we worked races. He told me that
although the line was selected, Doc told me that the line probably was overly adjusted, He said look at the second call, It was like a 43.4. Doc told me there was no way the pace would be that fast in today's race.
He had me start over and pay attention to each horse + races and see
what the second call pace of race was in those races. I scanned the PP's and told Doc the pace of the + races for each horse was more like 44.5-45.
I also am glad you mentioned the fulcrum. In the hard bound original
PMTR the example horse earned a 93 EPR . It was not aberrant.
The horse that earned the 93 EPR was the only horse in the race who had shown it could run a + race that fast.
That is what the fulcrum in PMTR is used for. Which horses can or can't compete against the fulcrum pace of race.

Blessings
Bill

I have no problem going back as many as needed. Started back in the early days of Sartin and track horse patterns and how they arrive at a win (not trainer patterns) and have found many good prices doing this. The one thing I can say for certain there are no hard and fast rules on how you handicap. After over 35 years of pace handicapping I rely on experience and gut feeling. The computer only crunches the numbers, you make the decisions on what the computer spits out.

Excellent point Charlie
Tim

When using the 2 excuse method I also use michaels Advanced form paterns also.this helps open up a horses form cycle window

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mitch44 (Post 113590)

I only open up the PP's to get a line as the PP's or line tells me to go to another line Jeebs.

Pizzolla will use a 5 F turf race for a dirt route (taking its best in the chart) which I would never do that. His line picking is something I would never condone.

Also having tried his BM for a 90 day trial I would not recommend it at all. His pace numbers are the worse I've ever seen and Phase one or TPR are much netter and would outperform them. For a guy that started with Sartin he sure never evolved as far as pace numbers. I believe the flaw is in adjusting the 3rd FR or his PBS numbers. Adjusting those is not adjusting them to todays matchup but he adjusts them to the matchup of that race which is not todays matchup.

If your using RDSS you are using the best out there for pace handicapping.
Mitch44

Remember Pizzolla was a magician and he can make your money disappear.

Very well said Charlie, that he could do. ha ha ha

Mitch44

I also been using BM since it came out. I've been very happy with the program. Originally made pbs and ppf myself and they were great for me. I live in las Vegas and Michael is a personal friend of mine. Meeting him only helped my game.

I began using the PBS rating when it came out in the follow up. Over the years its been a very solid number for selecting winners.