Match Up This Race
 

I ran across this old race, and I thought it was pretty interesting. I had never seen it before, and I handicapped it for the first time myself. I'm curious how you matchers (and matchers to be) would analyze this race using what you have learned so far. (Don't worry about getting it wrong; I did--kinda ;))

I'll put up the result chart in two or three days after enough people have had a chance to respond.

(Richie: I'd really like to see your analysis as well, but could you please wait until others have had a chance to give their opinion before you give yours so as not to unduly influence anyone? Thanks. :) )

Hi Turbulator


I'd pass - not enough info on the #5

I believe that the race will run OTE-EPresser. The #2 horse B’s Wild Rush is my choice to win the race off of its MSW win back on 5/19/07. It won against a faster ¼ and half time then anyone else has been able to run in their pp’s.

In its last race of July 15, 07 it ran against an even faster ¼ mile of 21.4 at a very good 2nd within ½ lengths and while falling back at the half came on again to gain two positions while beating half the field. This horse is fast and can come again as his last race and win show. In his win he shows he is a fighter that can win even after falling back, a big plus. Finally I really like its works coming in to today’s race, another big plus, so he would be my pick. Win or lose I would always pick a horse like this.

Robert

#2 is quick from the gate and has by far the quickest 1c. Jumps off the page.

I'm with you Azbacks
 

Bet the little guy on the 2 :) :) :)

I will try
 

Running styles

1 Sus
2 Early 22.0
3.E/P
4 Press
5 SUS
6 s/p
7 E/p
8 Early 24.1

The race will be won other than early

The two is going to get the lead on the 8
the 8 is out the 2 is from a poly track AP (i think)
Horse 7's line 2 seems to be the horse to sit just behind the earlys

My projected pace will be
22.0 47.0
The 7 seems like a good match
and the 6 in its last race made a nice power nove
but against a 24.1 48,3

The 5 is a question

I would take a chance with the 6 and 7

Here is my read on this race.....
#1 EP (real close to an E) 24.2 24.3
#2 EP 22.1
#3 EP 24.2
#4 EP 23.4 mud, 24.1
#5 S 23.2
#6 EP 24.1 23.3
#7 EP 23.1 23.2
#8 E 24 way to slow and can't get the lead...OUT

should be run OTE.
#2 is dominant EP of the group...race could go in 22.1
1,3,4,6,7 could burn each other.
#5 young and improving..should sit bac and conserve energy for the stretch run........UNKNOWN FACTOR.
Hmmmm....2 or 5
Would probably play both, but if I had to choose, #5 is the choice for the win.
2,5/2,5,7,6 ex bx 2,5/2,5,7,6/2,5,7,6 tri

There are some questions here:

1 - the 2 has never run on dirt. She is probably the quickest E of the group, but with plenty of company. In the one turn mile at AP she faded after 6f in 113.3. In her win she was 1st fighting, lost ground and position to 3rd and then 4th - then rallied to win - it looks to be by the default of others gasping harder than her. In her last race after pushing the pace, faded to 7th and then rallied to pass two horses. This horse doesn't like the lead IMO - so she is not the fastest here!
2 - the 5 in its debut was off slow, so we really don't know much about her preferred position. But in this field that should not matter (its a benefit) as everybody else is early or can only win from 2nd or 3rd position.

If the 2 is best E all the E/P's get lunched here. In any event the E's and EP's dual themselves into submission. The only horse in this field that has passed anyone is the 5.

Stop the presses - bet the five!

1 S
2 E all poly??
3 P
4 P
5 S
6 sp
7 EP
8 E

OTE

matched against the #1 last (fastest) 22.3 46 113.2

only 1 and 7 can compete against that pace
now I'm stuck, but will take the 1 over the 7
7 has beaten main contenders in tandems but running
style leans towards early and possible trouble.

if #2 runs to his poly lines no contest we lose

1-e/p
2-e-22.1
3-p
4-p
5-s
6-p
7-e/p-22.3
8-e

With all the early horses I think the race will be won OTE and I like the 5 to be there at the end for the win.