A reasonable rule of thumb when deciding on win contenders is to limit the number according to the formula: # runners divided by 2. That is, in a race with 6 runners, no more than 3 win contenders. In a race with 8 runners, no more than 4 win contenders, etc. Over the years, Sartin went from 5 to 4 win contenders per race, and Bradshaw then narrowed it to 3 via his matchup. If you end up with more than the formula dictates, you should probably not make a win bet in that race since either you or your software does not understand it.

Also, there is nothing wrong with finding win contenders, and then creating a separate list of in-the-money contenders who are unlikely to win. For those using RDSS, the software is designed for such delineation.

Richard

The I was trying to make was that my understanding was the selection section is for posting our opinions on a race or races and required no comments. If we post in the races of interest form then we have to make comments along with selections. And when it comes to teaching we have the Handicapping 101 thread plus an entire thread devoted to the FTL approach. Suggesting that we should mix and match threads is counter productive and not necessary in my humble opinion.
Tim

Discussion
 

Hi Tim

The race of interest forum is different in that the directions are
*Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems
Also that forum is and was meant to be for races with a wider range of interest to the racing industry than your normal day to day races

Yes there is handicapping 101 and the FTL forum
They are great teaching areas

What is being discussed here is simply the fact that for some people
Only posting reports of winners after the fact with no validation of a bet
is red boarding and not teaching,

Thing change. If Ted and I fell the selection area might need some improvements and we discuss it , Then we decide to expand the requirement that proof of the outcomes is required. That will be added to the details of this forum and non compliers will be edited

Well if that's what you and Ted decided don't you think it would be nice to inform us of the new guidelines before you start questioning peoples' integrity? I know that one of the poster who committed this gross misconduct does in fact bet what he says he does since I have seen him bet in person. And posting selections is not,in my opinion,teaching anything but merely posting ones view of a race or races. If it's to become a teaching thread who qualifies the poster as qualified to to teach anything?. The Doc picked his teachers [ a very few selected members] whom he deemed certified to do so. Since new guidelines have been established then by all means enforce them. I will be interested in seeing who among the group are now considered teachers and look forward to reading their informational posts & threads. Thanks for the update on the new requirements to post in the selection thread.
Tim

Some of these issues came up briefly in our Friday night meeting in Saratoga.

Here's a proposal for feedback, after which I'll make a Sticky Post for this Selections Forum with updated guidelines for how we want to use it going forward.

Selections Forum:

Picks (and any amendments for Scratches) in the Selections Forum must be made before the race runs (no red-boarding please).

Posters are encouraged to follow Richard D’s proposition that the number of picks in any race should not exceed half the runners in a race (or half+1 if an odd number).

It is a bonus – and appreciated - to give a short description of your opinions in a race like some do, though not mandatory.

Periodically, regular posters can remind readers how they use their ordered picks to bet (e.g. Win bets from Top 3 according to odds, the remainder in exotics).

Selection Forum posters are required to follow up on the results of their daily picks with Results and payouts. No screenshots of tickets are required post-race. If folks who made pre-race selections WANT to post shots of winning tickets (i.e. to brag!) – they are always most welcomed!


Races of Interest Forum
No change to existing guidelines. This a Forum for DETAILED 'how I did it' analysis of a race, preferably with screenshots and results. Posting after the race is OK (and probably preferable so as to not confuse future readers with everything uselessly changing due to scratches).

ANYONE can post if they adhere to the above. It can be considered a ‘teaching’ forum if readers end up 'learning', otherwise mileage may vary but all are welcomed. There are 100s of ways of using the Methodology and RDSS, and we don’t issue teaching certificates any longer.


Summary of Guideline Changes (Selections Forum):
1. You have to post a follow up to your daily selections
2. No red-boarding please (don't say you won a bet if you didn't post it pre-race. Do that elsewhere with a screenshot of your Big Hit and we'll all celebrate!)
3. Comments re selection method and bet structure are welcomed though not mandatory.

(4. Races of Interest Forum guidelines are unchanged: DETAILED analysis goes here; all are welcomed to post).

For consideration and feedback. Thanks folks!

Ted
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To me using half the field + 1 is far too many horses. Why not use what Sartin always advocated, that is two horses for win bets, +1 for scratches or if someone wants to wager cap. No more than a total of 3 horses.That's more than enough for win, win betting and for other horizonal bets. Beyond that is nothing more than a guessing game.

After all our main goal should be to help someone win not be an exacta player or proficient trifecta player. Winners are the springboard to everything and if they can't get the winner they can only get nothing or zero.

Now in posting the results if the poster wants to post their ticket for a EX. TRi. ,DD. P3 etc. it would be an incentive to hone their winner getting skills. If posting a P3 or P4 etc. than additional horses would be allowed within reason say a total of 5, but even in those types of bets most races 3 horses would be the norm. No problem going 5 deep in an ugly or wide open race but not realistic for every race.

Additionally a maximum of 3 horses for win reduces the comments that would be required in the Races of Interest section or forum, of course in that forum their free to expound as much as they want or just a simple comment.

Posting the results within a reasonable amount of time is helpful and prevents the user from having to go search for the result and as time goes by for older posts even more difficult.

I.e. 5th AP 4-7-10, #4 won $6.80 or # 5 upsets and pays $ 36.00

Get your say in or don't bitch later or to be P C forever hold your tongue.


Mitch44

I agree with the original poster (Richard) absolutely no red boarding.

At seminars Sartin always went over the next days races and even then many chose their own horse.He was never worried about losing anyone race. Nobody or any process wins every race. Its the process and procedure that's important.

Past races for teaching should be frowned upon unless the data for the date, race #, track and horses name are all blacked out or hidden, otherwise they just look up the result and everyone is a genius. They only fool themselves. By hiding that data it forces members to participate in the process and participation enhances the learning process. People learn more by doing and participating than by lecture or any other means. Simply put by being involved with the task at hand.

Mitch44

I agree with Mitch that less is more. I prefer to see precision. One horse or maybe two like Conley and Parts do, but ideally with some rationale. Also, nobody bets every race. Post what you understand like the M4$ contests a few years ago...those were good examples of posting picks before races ran. Sure you will miss a lot. Posting the numbers of half the horses in a field, you will be posting the winners’ number frequently but so what. Did you really bypass the first two you listed and land on the third just because he was 12-1? Maybe.

Two horses max (ideally one, as per matching) with rationale. That carries the most weight for me. If you are betting exotics be specific. You have to respect precision over a range of possibilities even if more wrong than right.

Pook

Good Posts
 

Thanks Mitch and Pook

Since it's the Sartin Methodology I recommend that the poster list 4 contenders and designates their wp pick[s].. For the purpose of keeping the exotics bets simple we would use the Docs' recommendation of boxing the top 3 for exacta and 4 horse box for tri. I realize that many use different approaches but this keeps it simple. The poster is free to post their preference if desired. As always I will abide by whatever the group decides,
Tim