Does AGE matter?
 

The other day Bill V put up a post about a $76.00 winner at PARX, race #2.
Amazingly, this came in a 6 horse field and the winner had a ML of just 6/1.
Here's a link to it if you haven't read it yet. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9214

Before you go there, you might want to read this post, which is about the race Bill V. posted.

The title of this thread is "Does AGE Matter?".
As you might imagine, the answer is "YES" and that is what this is all about.
I've written about this before, but it never hurts to go over it again.
Early in the year there are generally not any races for three year olds and up (older). WHY? Because these three year olds were just the two year olds and have not matured enough to compete with older horses. And even when you do see a race for three year olds and older, the race generally has no three year olds in it.
We are, however, at early summer and three year olds will start taking a shot vs older horses. Keep in mind, by late summer and early fall, these three year olds will be mature enough to compete with older horses.


I'm going to go through the 2nd race at PARX, 1 horse at a time.

Here is horse #1

Attachment 34500

As you can see, this horse is 4 years old and has been racing against other older horses.

Horse #2

Attachment 34501

This is a 3 year old. Starting in line 6, this horse has consistently shown early speed at the 16K and 10K claiming level, having won a NW2L at the 10k level. Suddenly, in its' last race that early speed disappeared. The thing to take notice of is this. It met older horses for the first time!

Some could take the position that it raced on an 'off' track and that was the cause of the poor effort. OK.
Some could argue that the class level was too high, but it had shown early speed at that level previously. Not OK.


Horse #3

Attachment 34502

This is the ONLY other 'older' horse in the race (4 years old) and has been racing against older horses throughout the PP's shown.
There is certainly nothing wrong with this horses form. In its' last six races it has been 1st or 2nd four times at the second call, 3rd once and 4th (beaten just a neck) in the other race.

The rest of the field
 

Horse #4

Attachment 34503

This is a 3 year old that has raced against older horses in its' last three starts, winning one of them.

Horse #5

Attachment 34504

Another 3 year old that met older horses for the first time in its' last race. It had good form going into that race and it showed good early form in its' first effort against older horses.

Horse #6

Attachment 34505

This is another 3 year old that met older horses for the first time in its' last race. It did not run well at all. In fact, this horse has had poor efforts its' last five races. Hardly worth considering as a contender.

So here is the bottom line. We have a field of 6 horses consisting of four 3 year olds and just TWO 4 year olds.

The 4 year olds ran first and third.

When you consider the age benefit the 4 year olds have over the other 3 year olds and when you consider that the winner has displayed good form throughout its' last 5 races, should the the winner been sent off at 37/1?
Is there any reason you couldn't consider the winner as a possible win bet?

Good info FTL. Thanks for sharing.

Agreed Lt1. Thanks FTL.

This is going straight into the notebook.

Age
 

Good work Dave
You did notice the weight allowance for the 3 year olds :1: