Saratoga Stats
 

After three weeks of the meet some trends are developing. As part of my handicapping, I keep a database of all the non-maiden races. I use paceline selection of the best perceptor of the last three in most cases. I only change that when the best preceptor is not in the last three races and then I use the best adjusted speed rating. So far, for all distances, the top 3 v/dc and ties win 67% of all races. The top 5 fx horses have won 80% of all nonmaiden races regardless of distance. The only exception to that is 8.5f on the turf where fw is a slightly better indicator but probably not enough to make much of a difference of just using top 5 fx for all races.

gandalf....what is fx.....speed horses......also v/dc

Fx and v\dc are calculations found in most sartin programs including rdss

thanks for the stats. any more insight on breaking the top 3 vdc or top 5 fx coices are down to just two; or is it just bet the two longest odds at post time?

As a follow up, to date there have been 34 non maiden 6f races at Saratoga. The winner has been in the top three of turn time 80% of the time. Based on my pace lines which are mostly best of last three percepter but changed when they don't agree with best adjusted speed figure of last three.

Good info Gandalf,thanks for Sharing

I have 16 races in last 2 years, at 6 fur at Sar. 62% 1-3 ep win
with prices of 10,31,16,45,4,18,32,17,7,8.

more stats
 

21 dirt races run at 6.5f. The top 4 fractal-e horses have won 81% of the races. Top 5 fractal-e have won 86% of the races.