Practice Race Keeneland Race 8
 

Keeneland race 8 In honor of Richie P , FTL and Jeff (shoeless)
all who keep me going out here on the road its nice to talk horses to pass the time .

Here we go .....


Notes
All have 2 wins except horse 7
Can the 2 horse route and go 3/3 ?
will a late energy turf horse win ?

Conditions

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Horses

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Horses
 

4 5 6 7

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Horses
 

8 9 10 11 12

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Bill, glad you posted this race. Lots of value i think.
To me it is between the #2, #10, and #12. I will try to write up something later in the day here on my opinion in this race if i get some time. Thanks for posting.

Readouts
 

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My look at the 8th from Keeneland
OC 62.5 N3-X
Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1
2 11 5 12 6

Step 2 Fulcrum horse
No Fulcrum No one has run at 8 furlongs - Keeneland last line

Step 3 Running styles

Horse 1 Presser No line 30/1 ml
Horse 2 S/P Line 1 - never routed only 2 lines
Horse 3 Early Presser Line 1
Horse 4 Sus No line
Horse 5 Presser No line
Horse 6 EP Line 1 No line
Horse 7 Sus Line 1 No line
Horse 8 Press line 1
Horse 9 Early No line
Horse 10 Press Line 2 excuse line 1 off track
Horse 11 Early Line 1
Horse 12 E/P Line 1




Step 4 Who has the top EPR

The 11 has the best EPR 99
Early Routing
Can It go wire to
wire = No Its LPRs are too low 81, 79 72

Step 5 rate the lines make your decisions


The top TPR horses
They are 10 11 12
Top 3 VDC = 10 12 3
Top 3 RX = 3 10 8

My bets 10 and 12

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Quick analysis

I have it down to #10 Quiet Ruler 2nd pace line and #8 Chipit 2nd paceline ...

Quiet Ruler has already run over today's distance at a flat mile while #8 Chipit will face a slower 2nd fraction in today's match up ...these are my two choices..

Good skills

This is a real tough race with too many unknown factors in it. A race I would past normally and have little confidence in. The 9 & 11 should set it up for a closer as they both seem to be NTL. A mix in here of horses stepping up in class, dropping in class, shorting up and stretching out(even a 1/2 to 1F can impact the race) and changing surface.
My order came up 8-10-12 however I'm taking a shot with the 5 & 7 for a $2 win bet for the fun of it. I expect the M/L odds also to go down on the 8-10-12 so their odds won't justify the risk. Don't like the race at all. Ugly!! A race that may run like it should or anything could take it. The 5 trains and works out on dirt so he isn't a toss, an unknown.

The 5 & 7 can close into a fast pace and their odds are worth a $2 flier on each.

Good luck,
Mitch44

I'll go 10-12- for win and use 348 underneath
Tim

I have it 8-11-12

miss
 

Monmouth's Jersey Joe Bravo spoils the party

To say we missed this one is an understatement.

Recap
None of our selections even hit the board! :cool:

The 4 wins and pays $16.00



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