Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Work up race Parx race 7 2/26 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10431)

Bill V. 04-28-2016 12:23 AM

Work up race Parx race 7 2/26
 
2 Attachment(s)
Here is race 7 from Parx
This race was requested for review
Its a 16 claimer for non winners of a race in 6 months

Attachment 40509

Step 1 is always run the last line for all the horses

Attachment 40510

Looking just at the last line I can see some key facts
2 of the horses # 2 and 6 have very good figures. 182.5 is a very nice TPR
These horses are coming from very good efforts
There are 3 horses coming from sprints, I have a good balance of running styles

Step 2 The fulcrum The 2 is our fulcrum horse with a 92 EPR
113.1

Step 3 Running styles
overview
1 Early 2, EPs, 4 Pressers, and 1 Sustained

Now I will pick lines.

Bill V. 04-28-2016 12:58 AM

Horses
 
4 Attachment(s)
My notes or in each horses lower right PP"s

Attachment 40511

Attachment 40512

Attachment 40513

Attachment 40514

Bill V. 04-28-2016 12:59 AM

Horse
 
3 Attachment(s)
5 6 8 #7 scr

Attachment 40515

Attachment 40516

Attachment 40517

Bill V. 04-28-2016 01:14 AM

read outs
 
2 Attachment(s)
next step Early or OTE

rate the readout

Attachment 40518

Earlys The 2 is solid. The 3 is early but the 2 will press it The 4 is weak here and out
Pick # 2 The top 3 total energy horses are all Early

OTE
The 6 is solid but can it win two in a row ?
The 5 has a good TPR but Its not top 3 EPR or LPR and It has a low VDC 5.3
Horse 1 is weak here -out
Horse 8 is solid with the best LPR It also ran against the fastest POR EP and has a class advantage
my bet here # 8


win bets 2 and 8


Attachment 40519

Mark 04-28-2016 01:47 AM

Nice!!!
 
If they were all like this you could retire!!

Latekick 04-28-2016 09:10 AM

Thanks for the work up Bill.


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