Turf Paradise to Hollywood / Case Study
 

let's rewind to 2 days ago.

here is the $ 14.40 winner's past performances using the f4 tab. Notice the Tup line has totally comparable "style" with the race before and the race after ( 2 different tracks btw)

Here is yesterday's $ 29.80 winner also set on the f4 tab.

Once again you see the Tup line fits very nicely with his preferred style matching almost identically his last race "look" at Santa Anita

Now a " live" race
 

This race is from today and has NOT run. Notice this time the style on the Tup line is totally out of sync with this guys behavioral pattern.

No way I use this line for THIS horse. He projects nicely off the marked line.

Point is there are tools that can be used - sometimes VERY effectively to seperate the "true" from the "false promise". Tools that only we posess.

This is also why ANY data concerning Tup shippers as a WHOLE can not be accurate in my opinion. We MUST be willing to get down and dirty to do the extra little things involved to make correct PRE race contender decisions.

Just my opinion

I wouldn't call E/P totally out of sync with his normal Early running style for three reasons:

1) The difference may be slight; it's not like comparing SUS to Early.

2) There may have been a reason for the E/P style which may or may not have been shown in the comments line.

3) Lightly raced horses may experiment with more than one running style (which may or may not be the trainer's idea) especially if it's the last race.

In general I think your concept is sound, Richie, but be careful making too fine a distinction. Just my opinon.

...but if you aren't careful in this game, you may find you are measuring with a micrometer what was marked with a grease pencil and cut with a chain saw. -Larry Hamilton