Boutique Meets - Best approach?
 

Keeneland starts up today. Shippers from all over the place descend upon Lexington for the next 3 weeks. Even with a consistent paceline/contender procedure, is it even worth following/selecting/betting considering all the variables at play?

Although I don't like these boutique meets when and if I decide to play there I just stick to my way of capping for any race. You must be consistent in your approach. In this case I do have a model from last yr, so even though I know it may not reflect what will happen this yr, it is a starting point. I have found that when tracks only run short meets my models do tend to hold up from the previous yr. I will however start with smaller bets until I get a handle on what's happening now.
Tim G

Years ago, Dr. Bill Quirin wrote, "The universal track bias is early speed." That's especially true of the Keeneland dirt. Sustained horses seldom get up. In that regard, it's like a West Coast track but with full fields. ;)

Funny
 

Funny story , one of the guys I hang with at Del Mar makes his living signing tickets
He is a lousy handicapper , but everybody wants him in the group for some reason wink ,

Anyway last year opening day or weekend he asks me for my selections
for a pick 3

We hit the first leg with a big long shot but it was not one of my selections
Anyway we hit the pick 3 it paid like 700 I never made another bet there
Got out on top :-)

DOC loved the placed, And Ihave have visited it but they were not running live at the time. It is a beautiful place .

Bill,

Speaking of Del Mar, that's next on my list. Woodbine last year, Saratoga this year, and Del Mar next year. (After 20+ years on the bench, I can't tell you how much I love retirement.)

Keeneland 2nd race
 

Jeebs,

Keeneland's 2nd race today might be informative. #2 "Rhodium" is an E8 with a 3-point speed advantage over #1 (P5) and a 5-point advantage over #3 (EP3). My Segments screen shows #2 with a two-length lead at the second call, but getting caught by #1 in the third fraction and losing by more than a length.

#2 is shipping from Oaklawn, dropping from an OC40K/n2x, and has a decent gate jockey in Rafael Hernandez. It will be interesting to see how far she can go. In years past, a mare with those credentials would take the early lead and keep right on going, winning by opening lengths. We'll see. I don't think there's any value in this race, so I won't be betting. But watching can be good, too.

Let me run this race real quick.

So, two races into the meet and favorites on the lead have won easily. Frankly, that could happen at most tracks. Now, we look for a non-favorite on the lead and see how far he can go.

Bombs away...
 

A big thanks to Mick... this just happened...

Attachment 43192

Attachment 43193

Attachment 43194

That, is what we refer to in NY, as a BANG!

Congratulations, Jeebs!
 

Jeebs, that's GREAT! We call that a BOMB in Kentucky, but we understand BANG, too.

And in the very next race, the Blue Grass, Irap, a maiden, never more than half a length off the lead, wins and pays $64.60.

I had neither but I'm glad you had one of them.

I didn't attend the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland, but today was as crowded as I have ever seen the place. I'm back at the hotel now, looking forward to a good night's sleep. And tomorrow, I get to do it again, but with a lot fewer people there.

Congratulations! :D