Kentucky Derby Race 12 5/6/17 G1 2,000000
 

We all know the horses

So here are my top 5 TPRs

If I get good enough odds I will be betting the 5, 7 and 14

Looking to betting 5.7 and 14 if I get over 4 to 1 on Empire #14
Patch #20 rates well but other than Big Brown who can win from post 20?


Attachment 43458

Agree on the 7 & 14 but will also put in the 16 - I'm excusing the last race because of a bad start.

14-17-18 in my selections

Bill, I have those same 3 horses. Also the foreigner #2 Thunder Snow. Very classy horse, multiple G1 and G2 winner, winner at 9.5 furlongs in the mud, owns multiple better TrackMaster SRs (Timeform Int'l) from classier races than everyone (with the single exception #14's last year BC Juvenile win). Runs as a Presser, close to pace. Great odds.

2-14-5-7

Good luck!

Ted

Derby
 

13-14-17

bob

Marathon Method in the Derby.

Top 5 and positions
#5 Always Dreaming 94.9 1st
#8 Hence 95.7 1st
#19 Practical Joke 94.7 2nd
#6 State of Honor 94.9 3rd
#18 Gormley 95.9 3rd

Yesterday in the Oaks the top filly had a 95.9. In the Derby today the slowest horse in the top five has 95.9 with the best being a 94.7. Three year old fillies are about one full second slower than three year old colts on average at this point.

In order...5,8,19,6,18
Wait for odds.

Pook

My top four

17-15-16-14

Project pace mid 46 - mid to hi 110

5, 6, 11, 17, 3 all gonna be thinking about the front

Looking for OTE

Like the 8 for the same reason liked conquest mo money in ark derby. 8 won against a 45.7-110.2 - from way back which is of some concern with big field.

Also like the 18 who beat the 11 who set a 46.6 -110.9 which I called the FPLR & based projected pace.

Big odds maybe bet wp 8 & 18...both have won on the wet too fwiw

Thunder Snow
 

Like Ted, I like Thunder Snow. The horse won at 9.5 furlongs on a muddy track at Meyden. These horses have not travelled well in the past, but this one has class. Maybe?
I also have him and three other horses coupled with the Oaks winner in the Oaks/Derby double so I would love to see him win.

My only real contenders are the 5 -17 -2 16. The 5 has done everything asked of him so far. This 17 isn't speed crazy and can rate, in his last he had to chase or lose the race. With additional speed in here he can rate and move later in the race for a score. The 2 horse is better than it appears, has some class, won on an off track and at 9F. Still races green and the most upside of all of these. Using Trakus I made his TPR ratings both PMTR and my own. He basically ran only 4 lg . below Gun Runner and 5 .5 lg of Arrogate on the same day for comparison handicapping. For a 3yr old that's saying something and is classier than appears and should improve with maturity. I'm surprised he's only 16-1 at this time, then again those connections have a lot of moo-la. I also like the 16 as I tossed his last race due to the track or bounce.
So my order is 2-5-17-16.

The horses in this race all ran their best race in their last and the race is really unpredictable and not worth trying to get too involved and hammering something is out of the question. I'll throw a couple bucks on the 2,16,18 & 19 for a price and an a small EX with those on top of the 5 and 17 and reverse with the 5 & 17 over the 2,16,18,19.
Best of luck in this Calvary charge.
Mitch44