Gulfstream Race 1 - 2/7/18
 

I'll post PPs later, but using FTL's guidelines for illustrative purposes, here is my view:

Conditions:
7F Dirt, Clm12500 4up (Races for $10k or less not considered in allowances, FL breds preferred)

#1 - Both lines 1 and 2 are above today's class. I excused the last line as it was a "0" race way up in class. Line 2 is a "+" line from 61 days ago. Note the big gain in both position and beaten lengths in the stretch. For those in the BLT/C camp, Line 2 would also be your line, as it rates the best Percept and PoH Total Energy. On the Early/Late sticks, it is a sustained energy runner, and Line 2 conforms to how it usually runs.

#2 - Off the guidelines, this 5/2 ML favorite would not get a line. Why? It has gone completely off form in its last two starts, the last line at today's distance/surface/class. Note that it was claimed last out and now goes for a conditioner who excels first off the claim. If I'm using the BLT/C, it would stick the horse with Line 3 based on Percept, PoH and PoR Total Energy. Like #1, it is a sustained energy runner on the E/L sticks.

#3 - This is a softball line selection for both FTL's and the BLT/C guidelines. Line 1 is your line. "+" line last out (a win 63 days ago) over the surface/distance, albeit in the $6.25k N3L. Goes double the tag today vs. open claimers. The BLT/C players would note the Percept rank and respective Total Energies plus the fact that the horse has shown both Early and Late energy in its good races. Could be an interesting contender off a 15-1 ML. However, there are still other horses to rate/dismiss.

#4 - Off the FTL guidelines, there is only one possible line to possibly rate, and that would be Line 2. Line 1 - despite the fact that it is a 1M "one turn" race and within a furlong of today's distance - is still considered a standard "route" race. FTL's guideline is not to mix route races with sprints and vice versa. So, Line 1 is out. Line 2 is within a furlong of today's distance, but it's a 6F line - a sprint - so it could be rated. However, in today's class, it would rate as a "0" line. Simply a dull effort with no excuse. Even if there was a reason to bypass the line, the remaining lines are turf lines. Since we don't mix turf lines with dirt and vice versa and since we don't use "0" lines for rating purposes, #4 would not get a line. If you are a BLT/C player, and felt that the horse could contend, you could either extract the last line route (since it's within a furlong) or stick with Line 2, as both lines are equal PoH Total Energy. However, based on its Total Energy potential, I would not see this one figuring as a contender off the BLT/C rating.

#5 - Another softball. Line 2 is the line for both the FTL and BLT/C guidelines. Line 1 is a route (not usable) and Line 2 is a win ("+" line) at today's surface/distance. Horse graduated from the N3L in that race and was subsequently dropped 50% last out and claimed off a high test trainer. Off the BLT/C, Line 2 has the best Percept and PoH/PoR Total Energy outputs. Need the lead Early.

#6 - For the FTL guideline players, it is Line 1 and nothing further. A "+" line off today's surface/distance/class structure. The BLT/C player would find their line at the 5th race down, 160 days ago over the same surface/distance, skipping over sloppy track lines 3 and 4 lines down to get its best Total Energy output of the last 3 comparable.

#7 - This is where the respective guidelines meet a philosophic impasse. If you adhere to the FTL guidelines, there is NO LINE. Why? The horse is 20-1 ML. The horse is a low percentage play and is summarily dismissed. If you use BLT/C and determine that the horse is a contender, your line would be Line 2 based on PoH/PoR Total Energy output, albeit a slightly weaker Percept. It is a versatile Early/Late stick runner.

#8 - Softball for both the FTL and BLT/C players. Line 1 from 26 days ago IS the line. Despite the fact that it got blasted by a runaway winner, it finished 3rd and is technically a "+" line at today's surface/distance. Line 2 is a softer class than the Last Line (and is a win line at today's surface/distance structure), but is 96 days old, which is outside the parameters set by FTL's guidelines. Based on the BLT/C guidelines, it rates the best PoR/PoH Total Energy and Percept of comparable lines 1, 2 and 6 (3 is a sloppy track and 4 and 5 are turf).

FTL Guideline output
 

Here is the original screen using lines based on FTL's guidelines:
Attachment 45340
#'s 1, 6 and 8 have been running against higher class runners, and may have a class edge. #5 is a NTL early and looks like the main threat up front.

Velocity PoH Screen:
Attachment 45341
The classier #6 throws down a strong F1 than the NTL Early #5, which could present pace pressure issues for that runner. It will need to throw down a strong TT to keep pace. #8 comes on the strongest of the bunch in F2. The #1 is even paced and owns F3 and Total Speed.

TPR Screen:
Attachment 45342
#'s 5 and 8 have a distinct EPR edge over the rest of the field, while #1's LPR stands out as much the best. #'s 1 and 5's TPRs match very closely.

Segments Screen:
Attachment 45343
Basically a rehash of the PoH screen, only visual. Based on CBL, #'s 5 and 8 are locking horns on the turn, fighting for supremacy, while #1 is creeping up. FWIW, CBL at the finish projects 1-5-8.

Bottom Line/Betting Line Screen:
Attachment 45344
Preliminary take is that #1 could be worth a tumble in a two-horse bet if it takes about the same amount of action on the tote as its ML suggests. However, the 2nd and 3rd ML favorites are Tier 1 and Tier 3, so getting 4-1 or better could be challenging. Couple that with the fact that #2 is a virtual unknown factor off the claim and is the ML favorite, this race could be more contentious than what the FTL guideline pacelines suggest.

The opposing (BLT/C) view
 

Original using BLT/C:
Attachment 45345
With #2 in the mix, we see that it has back class from a restricted stake (Claiming Crown). It is also a highly sustained visual runner.

Velocity PoH:
Attachment 45346
#7 off the 20-1 ML figures to be part of the Early equation along with #8, possibly making life tough on #5, forcing that one again, to throw down a strong F2. However, with this subset of contenders, #2 throws down the top F3, putting that one on par with #1 in Total Speed.

PMTR/TPR:
Attachment 45347
#'s 5-8-7 own the EPR, while 2-1-6 are the cream of the LPR crop. TPR is highly contentious after #1, as 5-6-2 sport the next best TPR output.

Segments:
Attachment 45348
#'s 5 and 8 come on strong from F1 to SC, while #'s 1 and 2 project to be flying at the end to finish close.

Bottom Line/Betting Line:
Attachment 45349
The two top tiers from the FTL selection remain steadfast, while #6 promotes to Tier 3 over #8. At this point, #'s 7 and 3 offer very little corollary support and can be dismissed. With #6 squarely in the mix, there is price potential with #1 and #6 based on ML odds.

Lines
 

Good morning Jeebs/tim
Using the auto paceline settings BLT/C RDSS picks line 2 for horse 2
It is a 0 line. Line 3 does get better readouts on the factors you rate
but its a one move effort against a very fast early first two fractions at 6 furlongs. Looking at other horses who have run 7.0 furlongs at GP
I don't think the pace will be 21.9 and 44.8
It broke last , in a field of 14 and was still 9 lengths back in the stretch
It did manage to get up for third beaten by 5 lengths, It's LPR rating is inflated to a very fast 94.6 . I would go with line 2. Line 2 rates 2nd using the auto paceline selections method. This line does not meet FTL's guidelines.

Today starts a new form cycle
Did the new trainer preformed miracles in 26 days since the claim ?
I would not use line 3 and hope against this one.

Bless
Bill

I wont be able to bet this one, I have a busy medical day :(

Good morning Bill,

As you know, the automatic BLT/C (Best Perceptor, Last 3 Comparable) built into RDSS has a rules set programmed into it by Ted. As defined from the original RDSS 2 Beta release notes (circa 2011):

Doc Sartin’s initial guideline for this was simply the best Adjusted Speed Rating (originally the DRF SR+TV used before Trackmaster downloads) of the last three races at a similar surface and distance. In going over teaching races with Mitch44, he has advocated the use of more modern tools such as PoH Total Energy, PoR Total Energy, TPR and Perceptor to make a determination of “best”. While he does not recommend going past Line 5 (for less seasoned users), he doesn’t care if the BLT/C takes him personally to Timbuktu (Line 10). If that is the best comparable line of 3 comparable lines, he will consider it. He ignores off tracks in any situation, and does not adhere to a strict days off guideline. He will extract more often than project when the need arises. There are sprint races where he will use a recent extracted route in lieu of using a sprint line because that line was fast. As an adjunct, Mitch will evaluate trainer moves/angles using Brisnet PPs.

My selection of Line 3 was based on my lessons with Mitch last year. It was the best Perceptor Rating and Total Energy output of the last 3 similar races. I also know that you have/or do use Validator mode in RDSS, which may have altered the horse’s perceptor?

I’m not disagreeing with your analysis, Bill. However, with what we know about this horse, and the claim/new trainer, I think we both can agree that this is enough to deem this one an unknown factor. If this one wins at a short price, so be it. There are other horses entered in this race whom we can consider and have more clarity as to form and energy factors. In other words, no other unknowns.

Hope you have a good day physically. Get well!
~Jeebs

Gulfstream Race 1 - 2/7/18
 

Gulfstream Race 1 - 2/7/18

3 is scratched.

Contenders 8,5,6. Kind of a hold or fold here Jeebs. 5 to the front but will it hold? That drop to 6250 after winning is suspect and he lost anyway. I say fold. 8 looks tough and the class of the field. I think 8 could win easily but the odds won't be good. 5 could maybe hold but no real confidence.

So I would go 8,5 if I was putting money down.

Pook

I view this as a tough race and not a prime betting opportunity.


With that said I don't think the # 5 is a NTL. From a matchup point of view its the speed of the race and perhaps only the # 8 can challenge it. If one of those is out of form ,break s bad etc. the other should have an easy trip. If more speed was present than it may set up better for a closer.
Several contenders in here that a case can be made for so odds can be of help.
# 5 steps up about 3 levels after a win at NW3L and must prove open company. Last a throw & returns to a better dis. Pace indicates can do it. Probably will be bet down.
# 2 returns to a better dis. for style and in previous races at the dis. showed better speed for the dis.
# 3 won and takes a big class jump, an unknown factor that must prove a lot. Has good balance in last & can rate. Only 1 dirt race & won plus a 4 yr old that may leek improving so an Unknown . Could pick up a piece and pass tiring horses at a price.
# 8 needed last and dropping today. Is this a suspicious drop? I think only after the race will answer this.
# 6 claimed 5 back and trainer actually improved and has very poor trainer stats, Returns sane class and to a distance it has won at 5 x& placed 9X Beat the 8 in last (Tandem) and drops to a better level. Not out of this.
Really tough one but I'll go 8-2-5-6-1
Mitch44

If I we're playing, I'd be going for a 2-horse wager on 1-6. Based on Doc's wagercapping guidelines, the odds are right. However on FTL's 4-1 requirement, #1 isn't getting the better of it and would be a pass.

Good luck to those putting $ into the race.

You had the right idea from the beginning Jeebs. Was a good score if you had your money down. Tough to have confidence in the race however.

Pook

Attachment 45353

A very solid Tier 3 winner over a negative dropper and a horse with suspect form off a barn change.