Preakness
 

Shocking.... No preakness predictions... Wonder why ? Could it be we don't believe what SPEC is telling us because everyone has annointed Barbaro as the triple crown winner ? I'll be the first to look foolish come 6:15 tomorrow.. My Top 3 BL/BL

1. Bernadini - Line 1
2. Sweet Northern Saint - Line 2
3. Brother Derek.... Line 2

Just was curious. How would Brother Derek compare to Bernadini when using Brother Derek's 3rd line back.

I have the same here and Im sure many others do. Tuff to go against Barba even though the figs arnt great. Should be fun though to watch brother and Berna. Not really a trip handicapper here but in all fairness the horse mad a hell of an effort. Also Berna with only three starts could perhaps? be the spoiler...maybe Best Doug

Line 3 is ever so slightly worse...

JMS,

You know I was looking at the same thing. I have a friend who normally sends over a two page analysis of the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Cup. Been sending it over for the past two years and he has cashed in over 30K in IRS tickets on the Derby and Belmont Cup last year. Hit the Trifecta on this years Derby. His write up for the Preakness and I quote
"Barbaro - The next Triple Crown winner"
And that was it.....so I looked and looked and figured.
Barbaro beat both Brother Derek and Sweet Northern Saint by 10 and 13 lengths in the Derby. That would be enough to eliminate them for me. Now Bernardini looks intersting with that 135.1 last race at 8F. The closest line to compare it to is Barbaro's 6 back 8F Turf race at 135.9 I think Bernardini's best races are yet to come but at the end of the day I would PASS and have to take my $20 and put it on another race where the rewards for bucking the favorite are better.
Then again, it's a horse race, anything can happen......we'll see.
Good Luck
Charlie

Preakness Screen 1
 

I did this race using Energy and used 4 horses. I used 2 lines back for SNS; Brother Derek; and Barbaro. I used Bernardini's last line. No doubt to me this will be a good horse, but I think he needs more seasoning. I will supply 3 screen shots and explain why I think this. I did use the manual adjustment for this race because of the different distances.

Preakness Screen Shot 2
 

Here Bernardini looks good.

Preakness Screen Shot 3
 

Look at the Early Exdc

Preakness Conclusion
 

Incidentally SNS got the most positive adjustment with the manual adjustment. The thing that concerns me the most about Bernardini is the deficient second fraction. He is about one point less in F2 to both Brother Derek and Barbaro. I confirmed this by using KGEN. This is not to be confused with the Kinetic Generator. KGEN graphically portrays moves in the race. Bernardini takes a significant dip in the middle of the graph, while Barbaro and Brother Derek has a big upward swing or (bulge) as they call it.

If you put in Brother Derek's third line back things get worse for Bernardini as BD shows 0.00 deficiencies in both columns 1 and 2 in the EXDC Match-Up. If one is to play Bernardini on the basis of the other readouts make sure you get a price.

Speculator Preakness IMUG
 

Speculator does indeed like Bernardini. This might be the only screen where Bernardini shows some weakness. Bernardini comes out strong in F1 and gets overtaken in 2F by Brother Derek and Barbaro. Than comes back on the 3F+TOTAL PACE. It has been my experience that when a horse gets overtaken in 2F the last readout is less reliable.