Delaware Race 1 workup - 8/29/18
 

Tidy six-horse field with #7 scratched out.

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My lines. All horses will get a line and I will eliminate/hide by Prim LS/Perceptor Total.

#1 - Line 2. L1 is an "off" track and L4 is a turf sprint. L2 rates as best of comparable.
#2 - Line 2. L1 is an "off" track. Of L's 2-4, L2 rates as best of comparable rest.
#3 - Line 2. Last 3 are comparable and L2 is best of these.
#4 - Line 1. L2 is an "off" track, and L4-5 are turf routes. Of L1 and L3, L1 rates best comparable of the rest.
#5 - Line 2. L1 and L3 are "off" tracks, and L4 is a route. This leaves L2 and L5, and L2 rates the best comparable of the rest.
#6 - Line 1. L3-L5 are turf races, leaving L1 and L2. L1 is the best comparable of these.
#7 - SCRATCH
#8 - L4 - L1, L2 and L5 are "off" tracks. L3 and L4 are comparable, with L4 the best.

Eliminations/Hides
 

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Taking #8 out of consideration. Its Prim LS is at the bottom, and gets no corollary support in any of the factors. When stacking up its TE against others in this matchup, it is woefully behind.

To get down to five runners, the next to go was #2, who is behind #5 on Prim LS, but is behind on Perceptor. Using my corollaries, #2 rated an 11 on the Balance readout (E/EP and L/EP) as well as V/DC. This was enough for me.

Down to five runners now.

Early/Late and BLBL
 

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Of the contenders, #1 is a "Very Early" runner, while #4, 5 and 6 are "Middle Early" types. #3 is the "counter" energy.

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Less than 30 minutes to post time as I type this, and if #1 and #5 remain close to the ML odds on the tote, they appear as significant overlays.

Good skill
 

Good skill Tim

I bet my top tier to Win #3 and played #1 and 5 the longshots equally to Win in smaller increments.

Good outcome
 

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"A" tiers #3 and 1 make proud here.

Excellent
 

Really well played Tim. Good for you this is a really good example

Final Odds BLBL
 

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Here was the BL/BL with Final Odds. Assuming one had the same pacelines and elims/hides that I did (forget handicapping, pretend that this is how your contenders lined up), how would one have played this race given this particular matchup?

Personally, I felt that playing my top tier in more proportional strength than my price runner in Tier 3 was correct as far as a two-horse Win strategy went, especially since #3 was 5/2 and its BL odds were 8/5. However, since my bottom tier runner was offering tremendous value with mild corollary support, it was also worth a small wager.

Obviously, the 3/1 exacta came in at a decent number, and I can't go back and play it post-hoc, but given the odds of my lower tiers, and the fact that #3 was the counter-energy late runner in a race dominated by E/EP ESP types, would a flat or proportioned Win bet on the price runners, backed up with an exacta keying the counter energy runner with the overlays been the better route? What about betting the longshots to Place and flat betting to Win the top tier?

Everybody bets differently, which I get, but I feel that I am leaving a lot on the table being so "win" oriented and not paying more attention to the other wager opportunities offered on a race-by-race basis.

Nice job Tim. The win bets were pretty straight forward with the 3 being 5/2 and the 1 the longer odds horse of the remaining 2 top 3 horses. As for the exacta your record keeping should guide you. What is your hit rate when you play them. Keeping track models for both winners and the place horse is also a great help when playing them. It is solely up to you to decide whether to play Why not consider rolling doubles?. Believe it or not it is easier to win 2 races in a row then trying to hit the exacta in a lot of races Again nice job on this race.
Tim

Awesome work Tim!!