Question-layoffs
 

Yo! when some tracks open back up CD and SA (i read the 15th) does one think there will b many horses w/ long layoffs? how does one 'cap this? will one use trainer stats-work out frequency-furlongs per day since last race?
or will there b horses shipping from TAM-GP-WRD-FON- OP

I generally take the cowardly way out and avoid such tracks for at least several weeks. ;)

If those tracks open May 15, I doubt I will even look at them until early June. There are other fish in the sea.

The Doc answer that question at the 93 Vegas seminar. Ted C asked how to deal with Woodbine where horses were coming off of extended layoffs. Doc stated assume that the trainers were working these animals and knew what they were doing.Then treat them like they ran last week. He further stated the you win % may go down but your win prices would go up. He also pointed to Oaklawn and how he and other teaching members employed this approach.Vic Palermo and Col Bruce Jorgenson confirmed doing that for FG and at that time Yakima Downs although Bruce was a little more reserved in his play. As for myself I handicap the races like any other and work off my models from the previous yr while establishing a new one. Surprisingly most tracks don't change that much. As for the layoffs I check the trainer records and if the horse has done well from layoffs before. Local knowledge of the trainer colony helps. I give the benefit of the doubt to the better trainers. And of course the odds play big part in whether to wager or not. Like anything else it's a matter of your experience and record keeping as to what approach to employ.
Tim

I think the racing world has changed since then. As stated above, trainers back then were working their horses into shape. There has been a big shift toward trainers racing their horses into shape, compounded by pressure on trainers from racing secretaries to enter horses to fill cards. Welcome to the new world of 6-8 horse fields, half of them entered to race them into shape and to stay on the good side of the racing secretary. And maybe to get better odds when their horse is a legit contender?

Pre-virus, there were too many tracks, too many races, and not enough horses. The situation has changed, at least for a while, as evidenced by all of the full fields plus also eligibles at tracks like Oaklawn recently.

Although trainers tend to pamper horses more these days they still have to deal with layoffs and injuries. Most of these horses have been working somewhere. The owners and trainers must pay bills so they will be ready to go when and if racing resumes. Heck even in normal times a lot of the big trainers use off track location for training. The other point Doc made was stop worrying so much about things you can't control. Mike you point out a valid approach which is observe instead of betting. For the more adventurous it's a time of some good payoffs if they decide to jump into the pool.
Tim

I still play layoffs like the doc. Hit some nice prices too...