SAR Full Card 8/8/20 Travers Day
 

SAR Full Card 8/8/20 Travers Day:

Reminder:

As = main win contenders, Bs = backup win contenders, Cs = possible win contenders, Xs = eliminate as win contenders

Pretty chalky card: winner 7-2 odds or lower in races 1,2,3,7,9,10,11

Favorites vulnerable races 5,12

r1: As 3-6, Bs 4-5, Cs 1-2: 3 showing sharp works, best figs, 5 from Brown barn, Castellanoup, has early speed => may be value horse, 6 has nice workout pattern, 4 is first time Lasix, best closing kick, 2 is also value play if spreading as long early on turf

r2: As 1a-6, Bs 3, Cs 4-5, Xs 2: 1a is legit fav from Atras barn off the claim, 3 has Irad and will be closing, 6 has best early speed and best figs

r3: As 3-9, Bs 4-8, Cs 1-7, Xs 2-5-6-11: 9 is legit fav, best closer into fast early pace, 3 has Irad, good turf breeding, good early speed, 8 will offer some value, 4 closes into fast early pace

r4: As 5-8, Bs 3-10, Cs 2, Xs 7-9: 5 has Irad, from Maker barn, best closing kick, 10 has Saez-Rodriguez combo, 3 shows best figs, 8 closes well

r5: As 5-6-7, Cs 1-2-3, Xs 4: 5 has Irad/Ward combo, will be a value bet anywhere close to 4-1, 6 is FTS from Brown barn, quality breeding, sharp workouts, 7 also FTS with quality breeding, sharp workouts, Saez up, from Pletcher barn,

r6: As 1-2, Bs 3-4-6, Cs 5-8-10, Xs 7-9: 2 has quality breeding, Jose Ortiz up, from Motion barn, value 4-1 or better, 1 is FTS with good breeding, Irad-Brown JT combo, 4 showing quality breeding as FTS, Santana up from Asmussen barn, 6 has Rosario up, value 8-1 or better, 3 has Alvarado up from Mott barn

r7: As 1-4, Bs 3-6-7, Cs 2-5: 4 likely pounded by rebate syndicates, has early speed and best figs, 6 has Irad, best closing kick at 7f, value at 7-1, 3 has Lezcano up, from Beattie barn, will also close well, value at 12-1, 1 will press the early pace, 7 been working well, from Martin barn, Castellano up

r8: As 1-4, Bs 5-7, Cs 2-6, Xs 3: 1 has Jose Ortiz, top figs, best closing kick, 4 has Irad, from Clement barn, good early speed, 7 has Rosario up, from Mott barn, will close, top figs, 5 will battle the 4 early, possible value at 3-1, 2 showing excellent workout pattern, but needs the lead and may not get it

r9: As 1-4, Bs 5-7, Cs 2, Xs 3: 1 has Rosario up, best closing kick, top figs, 4 from Brown barn, will be closing with 1, 7 another Brown horse, might be value at 4-1, 5 has Irad up, possible value at 9-2, 2 has best early speed, possible steal on lead, value at 12-1

r10: As 5-6, Cs 1-3, Xs2: 5 from Baffert barn, Velazquez up, dominant figs, will likely be pounded by rebate syndicates, 6 showing sharp works, Rosario up, 1 has hot Saez/Weaver combo, might be value at 10-1

r11: As 3-6, Bs 2-4, Cs 5-7-8: 3 showing sharp works, Saez up from Baffert barn, needs the lead but also closes well, some value at 9/5, 6 has hot TJ combo Tagg/Franco, has early speed and top figs, 2 has Irad up from Brown barn, some value at 7-1, 4 showing sharp works, Rosario, up, some value at 9/2

r12: As 2-3-5-7, Bs 6-9, Cs 1-8, Xs 4: 7 presses, value at 9/2, 9 is second time lasix, good breeding, nice closing kick, 5 has Irad, value at 4-1, 2 needs the lead and should get it, Jose Ortiz might try to wire, 3 showing quality breeding, excellent workout pattern, 6 showing sharp workouts as well, Gaffalione up, from Arnold barn

Good Luck

Richard

Good luck Richard
Tim

Recap
 

Recap:

r1: A(3)-A(6): $1 ex $13.10

r2: A(1a)-A(6): $1 ex $5.60, $1 DD $9.60

r3: A(3)-A(9): $1 ex $12.20, $1 DD $11.80, $1 p3 $37.25

r4: A(5)-A(8): $1 ex $13.00, $1 DD $13.70, $1 p3 $21.80

r5: A7)-A(5): $1 ex $7.80, $1 DD $4.45, $1 p3 $24.60, $0.50 p4 $31.40, $0.50 p5 $105.12

r6: B(3)-A(1): $2 win $16.60, $1 ex $33.00, $1 DD $16.50, $1 p3 $33.50

r7: A(1)-A(4): $1 ex $13.80, $1 DD $40.25, $1 p3 $67.75, $0.50 p4 $71.50

r8: C(2)-A(4): miss, winner paid $16.80

r9: A(4)-A(1): $1 ex $8.40

r10: A(5)-A(6): $1 ex $1.80, $1 DD $5.00,

r11: A(6)-C(7): $1 p3 $8.30

r12: A3)C(1): $1 ex $46.25, $1 DD $8.40, $1 p3 $12.30, $p4 $24.00,

Too much chalk.. If you bet every horse yesterday at SAR your ROI was 0.52: yes, you lost 48% of your bankroll. Classic case of winning a lot of races at HUGE underlaid prices.

Richard