Layoffs?
 

I am struggling with deciding when to consider a layoff horse. What criteria are suggested for having a layoff horse as a contender? Or, if you prefer, under what criteria do you completely eliminate a horse based on layoff?

Not all layoffs are created equal is the short answer.

Usually but not always, if a runner is off for more than 90 days
the reason is due to a setback for the runner.

Still there are many variations of situations
which can explain why time off for a horse
isn’t a good or bad thing.

Trainer history with layoffs are good to look into.

Thanks. In reviewing the 7/10/2021 races, I noticed I wasn't keen on the 5MTH3 layoff. It wasn't until later that I noticed it was Pletcher, with a win pct of about 23% on that layoff period. So, I think that answered my question. I think my cutoff point on elimination is going to be 11%.

A suspicious drop is another to look at. It cost real money to lay up horses, not just feed and care but also training for their return. Their just not going give away a $ 15,000 horse for $5.000.


As players we come across the same situations all the time. We have to learn to deal with those situations or pass the race. Layoffs, repeaters, stretch outs, cutbacks, FTS, FT dirt and FT turf are common everyday situations. Knowledge and a game plan for different situations is a must for success. For every move there is a counter move. If you can't handle them consider them an UNKNOWN Factor and avoid races with 2 unknown factors, that was Sartin's advice which is still sound today.


There are tools within RDSS such as % Med which can help. Also trainer stats and of course risk reward must be a consideration.


Mitch44

I read one suggestion that % Med up and TE down suggested going off form. Seems that needs refinement, such as both since a layoff.

How would you suggest using % Med?

% Med has nothing to do with form and I have never herd that before, that is "I read one suggestion that % Med up and TE down suggested going off form." I would disregard such advice as its not factual.

Lower TE or % Med could mean a short horse after a layoff or a horse that just got into trouble or could also mean a change in running style etc.

In simplistic terms % Med is how a horse runs and distributes its TE. Speed horses and E or EP tend to run faster early and tend to be sprinters whereas P,SP and S tend to run later in the race and be routers. In some turf races they just run slow early and fast late or L. That's not to say a E or EP can't win a route race. I.e. if their all early than an E will win. Some turf tracks favor speed such as SA whereas Sar if it rains it can be slow or heavy.

The ESP of a race or the Match Up has a great influence on a race.% Med is a great help in determining if a horse can stretch out or take to the turf.

The very best place to read about % Med is in Tom Brohamers book Modern Pace Handicapping, where he describes it in great detail. Within RDSS % Med is used to determine the ESP by the computer driven formula. Actually the formula is no secret but computers gives consistency of application and is not prone to mistakes like hand application is.This is the one I recommend as its more accurate than the visual ESP or RS ESP in the program. Players frequently believe just because a horse went wire to wire in victory that its an E horse. Most time this isn't true as it slows down on the lead and nothing in the race can challenge it.

One should also choose a pace line that conforms to its normal running style as determined by % Med.

Mitch44

The best way to use %med is to establish a range [by surface and dist]] that winners
run at the tracks you play. For example at Parx[based on my capping] that range for winners at 6f is currently 68% to 70 %. Horses that run below or above that range normally do not win. I review the horses' entire chart to make sure it consistently runs above or below that range. I require at least 3 such races to be showing before downgrading the horses' chance of winning. Same goes for place[& show] horses for those that play exotics. As for lay off horses I check the trainers' record with such animals and also the pps to see if the horse itself runs well off those types of situations. Finally it must rate high enough on my readouts to be considered for being a possible play.
Tim

i use workouts to check the lay off horse in form, workouts 3f go under 36.0, 4f go under 49.0 5f go under 1.01 is in top form, is a win contenders,

raymond

Nice Stuff
 

Those figures sound about right
Thanks for the info

Workouts are another indication of form and readiness. Sartin advised and considered any workout that averaged 12 seconds per furlong was a fit and ready horse. I.e. 3 F in 36 or 12 x 3 =36, 4F in 48, 5 F in 60 or 1 minute etc. and so forth.

Within RDSS all workouts are recorded and scored and are a great aide in evaluating a horses' condition or lack there of. Few consult them and more should, also for horses that haven't been laid off.

Mitch44