Race with new distance for all? PL selection
 

Del Mar Race 1 today- 8F on Turf

Field of 8 post scratch....
All starters have been sprinters in minimal starts- all but 1 lone start from the bunch on dirt.

How do you set your PaceLines for this scenario? Going to guess most skip the race entirely but I am curious.


I had my selections of 2,4/6,7,1 but watched the tote action to guide me. Small dutch on 2,4 so DQ didnt bother me, but is there an ideal way in this scenario besides skipping?

I think the technical term for this kind of race is 'crap-shoot'. But, also where prices can be had from time to time. Choose your chaos tolerance.

My rule is: demote from Win in a turf race anyone who has not previously run (well) in a Turf race. I win more than I lose by applying this guidance. Thus - there's only 1 horse: the #4 (the rule magically knows about DQs ROTFL).

The default 'Best of Last 3' Paceline Strategy works as well as any, IMO. FWIW, take a look at the Supplementary Factors on the Rx screen, including the PoR Supplementals. Which of the underneath horses rates best? (the #7 Place horse).

The other part of the crap-shoot is: who knows how these horses will stretch out (another 3 furlongs).

Your Exacta part-wheel seems the perfect bet that the favourites will not finish 1-2, given the action on those 2 and the FTS. $6 bet returns $32, or 5-1 (probably better if you dutch it for an equal payoff). Is 5-1 enough payoff with so many unknowns?

I'd rather get more, and would pass.

Attachment 49889

Ted

Here's my pace lines (everybody has some, so here's mine):

1 1
2 2
4 1
6 1
7 1
9 1

My pace numbers point to 4-2-7. Admittedly I am doing this after the fact and not evaluating any of the firsters.

I see Ted and I have different lines for #6, but for me it was a toss up on that one.

As one who maintains models for each dist and surface of the tracks I play I would lean on the %med range since most sprinters expend their energy too early in routes i would see which factors are currently winning at the dist. Still the best course in this type of race is El Paso.
Tim

Sorry I was away today and unable to get on the forums for most of the day. I would think that 5-1 given the unknowns is below the acceptable risk/reward ratio for most gamblers that seek higher value in chaos races.

I do like the demote anyone who has not ran well in Turf before- with unknowns one is required to know a little pedigree or see turf works etc....thank you

That is where models help, to understand what wins where, thank you- the %med is an interesting take, just on the fact that sprinters gonna sprint early thought process, and have little left late.

I would think perhaps Late would be a good indicator of a stretch out type horse if VDC was low with high energy, but I may be speaking above my knowledge level in this regard.