Bel 6/11 - Belmont Stakes
 

This is a tough race for only having 8 horses.

I think my bets will be 4 and 8 to win, and then the exacta 4, 8 / 4, 8, 6, 5.

This is what I am looking at:

I'm going with #5 Creative Minister. I think he is sitting on a big race.

Is RDDS primed for races at 1m and a half.?
I prefer to use DRF Distance breeding no’s. “The Tomlinsons”
Today the best 5 are
#7 337 20-1
#6 318 5/2
#3 310 8-1
#1 301 2-1
#5 301 6-1

So win 7&3..Dutch$20
Exa box 367.. weighted!$20
Tri 367/367/13567$1
Supa 367/367/13567/13567$0.20

When I worked on Synthesis, about 22 years ago, the Sartin programs could not really handle races under 5f or over 9f that well.

It seems like Ted, or someone else, has greatly improved that.

Obviously, since there are pretty few North American races at 12f, there is not going to be a large data sample to draw from, but in my personal experience, the deceleration rating does a good job of noting endurance. I like to look at deceleration and LPR and HID for long races.

Another problem with something like the Belmont Stakes is that class is probably more important than anything else. There is no rating for class. Howard said that pace was class, and that is true IMO until you get up to the graded stakes races. When it comes to graded stakes, "class" as handicappers have traditionally defined it, is pretty powerful, even more powerful than speed and pace ratings. Grade 1 winners tend to beat Grade 2 winners and so on...

And yet another factor is these are 3 year olds. There is nothing as scary to a handicapper as a rapidly improving 3 year old, they are damn near impossible to predict.

This is why I say that this is a really tough race to handicap, even though there are only 8 horses. We will know tonight whose picks for today won, but for these type of super high end races for young horses, there is no long term winning system, you have to really look at each of these races as an individual event.

Dan

When I deal with these types of races I change the dist to 10f and don't use the Derby race under any circumstances[if I remember Doc stated not to use the Derby. I also adhere to another Doc guideline using only horses who have won or placed in a G1 or G2 race. This has held up remarkably well over the yrs. Good luck to all playing the Belmont
Tim

Haha, I was just about to post this advice about recasting this 12f (1.5 mile) race as 10f (mile and quarter). On the RDSS Card Summary screen, right-click the distance (or surface) column to get the Change Distance/Surface dialog box.

For myself, I don't put a lot of confidence in RDSS' ability to add much to such marathon races. It is what it is. Plus, not knowing the distance limit of some of these young runners is just that much extra unknown that I usually prefer to watch and bet for entertainment than bet actively.

Good luck today!

Ted

1 2 go out then 6 4 5 chase.. 8 continues to improve

FWIW, here are my 12f and 10f Rx screens respectively: no change in BL/BL, V/DC or Rx1,2,3 ranks, modest difference to Total Energy and significant difference in LPR tho not LPR rank (due to longer 3rd fraction component) using the same pacelines. Tells me RDSS internally handles the 12f distance as best it can similar to a 10f.

Again, no strong opinion in this race but FWIW, 6-1-4 for Win and 5-8-3 for 2nd/3rd/4th positions.

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Ted

Just to be clear I will change all 11 & 12 fur races to 10 unless all true contenders have a usable line at the dist. Had 1 at Parx today [R10] where this applied. Thankfully we don't have to deal with this too many times a yr[unless one plays a lot of turf racing].
Tim

I thought it strange that the filly Nest was entered here. ON this weekend, there were several races with purse values while winning would beat a 2nd or 3rd in this race. I just think that the trainer must think he has a legit Amazon.

My picks are 1-6-3 with the 5 for the lesser positions.

We The People on the lead, with Nest close by, and Mo Donegal coming hard at the end.