Saratoga 8/19
 

1 - 1, 3, 2
2 - 1, 3, 5, 7 ( really like 3 )
3 - 2, 4, 5
4 - 1a, 3, 4, 5 ( I think 1a is false favorite even though great f3 compared to others )
5 - 6, 3, 7, 2
6 - 9, 2, 3, 6
7 - 1, 5, 6, 10 ( could make a case for most of the horses in this race, real crap shoot )
8 - 4, 7, 1, 3 ( 3 is the clear class choice but the layoff of 167d is not reassuring )
9 - 8, 3, 7, 6
10 - 3, 10, 8, 4

been a while since I posted, been getting killed lately, think it is my betting more than my handicapping, just trying to figure it out

Good luck today, few of the races could produce some surprises for the reasons you listed. I didnt think much, just rolled with what it gave me.

Good luck Dan.
Tim

the first race shows the problems with maidens, the 5 wins on his second time out after a rather poor first race.

he did have:

msw to mc
trouble in fts
off 50d with great works
and good connections

I passed this race and was glad I did

5, 3, 1 finish

did not have the 5



the second race did a little better, I bet the 3 to win and place. I should have put him over and under the other 3 for the exacta, but failed to do so.

5, 3, 1 finish ( same as race 1 haha )

these were my top 3 picks in reverse order

in the third, i did notice that the 3 had had his best race ever with Saez in the saddle, but I mistakenly discounted him for being too low class.

4, 3, 2 finish



in the fourth, I once again showed why I need to stay away from maidens

1, 1a, 4 finish



did ok in the fifth

6, 2, 7 finish - had all 3 in my top 4 selections




guess the day is going ok at this point

in the sixth race I had the top 2

6, 9, 10 finish



in the seventh race I should have had the 2 off the 2nd race back, but there were just so many possible horses within this race

1, 2, 6 finish



in the eighth race, the 5 was a young and improving horse, but it had never run in a stake, let alone won one, and a lot of these horses have won a graded stake. It ran well, but I did not have him. The 3 has won at least 2 G2 races at 9f, I am not surprised he was itm, even with the layoff.

4, 5, 3 finish

Nice work Dan.
Tim

in the 9th race:

7, 3, 8 finish



in the 10th

3, 4, 5 finish

Thanks Tim,

Having worked the first 5 weeks at Saratoga, I would like to think I am getting the hang of the track. This is the first Saratoga meet I have ever handicapped.

As I suspected, my handicapping is still ok. I somehow managed to lose quite a bit of money last week with this kind of handicapping. My betting is obviously terrible. I seem to zig when I should zag. Pass when I should bet, bet when I should pass. I really need to come up with some kind of betting methodology and stick to it.

Howard was great at teaching people to handicap, but whenever I asked him about betting, he was always more cryptic. He would say things like: "sometimes you should go down to the 4th BL to get a longshot, don't get locked into the top two" or "you have to know when to pass, that is the real key to making money". I am not trying to blame him, just like he maintained there were no hard and fast rules for handicapping, I am sure there are no hard and fast rules for betting. The main difference is that you can proof out ideas on handicapping on paper, but when I am betting on paper and when I am betting real money in real time, it never is the same.

If I ever figure out the secret to wagering, I will write it down. I think that would be as big of a break through as Pace was. Or, maybe I am the only one that really sucks at the wagering side of the game. :) Who knows?

If anyone has any insight on how to improve your profits once you get decent at handicapping, I am all ears.

Dan

Recap

BL 1 - 2.60, 11.00, 8.40, 15.60, 4.50
BL 2 - 4.10,
BL 3 - 10.40,
BL 4 - 11.20, 24.20,

Missed - 11.20

Exactas in top 4 - 80.00, 7.10, 197.50, 34.60, 135.00, 23.20
Trifectas in top 4 - 168.50, 1047.00, 649.00,


Brute Force Exotic Wagering:

Box all 4 for exacta costs $240, would have hit 6 out of 10 for $477.40, profit of $237.40
Box all 4 for trifecta costs $480, would have hit 3 out of 10 for $1864.50, profit of $1,384.50


Betting top 2 horses in all non maiden races:

6 bets for $24, hit 5 races for $43.60, profit of $19.60