Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   SAR Sunday Aug 20 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16006)

Ted Craven 08-20-2023 11:00 AM

SAR Sunday Aug 20
 
My take - Today's Selections (putting this in the Saratoga Meetup Forum)

Saratoga Sunday Aug 20

R1 5-12-4-1A (9=Lone E, should not be a threat)

R2 6-3-5-4 (#3 is best E of 5 Es! #6 is lone OTE, use best E, best OTE and rest of Top 4 4F - 4 Factor - horses)

R3 3-6-7-4

R4 3-5-4-2 (#6 too slow EP vs other Es 5,3)


More to follow ...

Dap Daddi 08-20-2023 12:17 PM

Ted: With the 3 horse scratched out of the 2nd race, I am leaning towards singling the 4 horse as she appears fresh. Again I don't know the New York racing circuit that well so I am relying on those of you that do.

Ted Craven 08-20-2023 02:53 PM

Dap, I ended up passing - all prices to efficient and not enough value for the risk.


One day the #4 horse will hit!



Ted

Ted Craven 08-20-2023 03:03 PM

Race 4 cashed. Bet Exacta Box 3-5-2 and Exacta Wheel 3 / 5-2.

FWIW, I chose to play the #2 instead of the #4 due mostly to its odds (7-1) and to its last race Tandem with the #3.

Not really able to post in real time my planned wagers - tooo much gong on. But still having fun!

Ted

Ted Craven 08-20-2023 03:10 PM

Charlie Bedard (gandalf) Selections
 
1 Attachment(s)
Here are Charlie B's selections for today, from the Saratoga Special local newspaper:


Attachment 51992

Ted Craven 08-20-2023 03:27 PM

Race 5 - mostly FTS = no bets for me.

Based on workouts, on physicality inspection (thanks cratman!) and ProfitLine, we have 1-6-5 (the 3 top favourites)

Ted

Ted Craven 08-20-2023 03:40 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven (Post 152180)
Race 5 - mostly FTS = no bets for me.

Based on workouts, on physicality inspection (thanks cratman!) and ProfitLine, we have 1-6-5 (the 3 top favourites)

Ted

Also, Exacta payoffs for #5 were paying lower than they should have compared to Win Pool Odds (closer to the #6 horse's ~5/2 odds). I.e. someone/s had a good opinion of #5 and chose to 'hide' that opinion in the Exacta pool. Thanks omar and cratman for this insight.

Attachment 51995

Ted

Dap Daddi 08-20-2023 03:54 PM

Thanks Ted: There is a horse I plan to wager a $100.00 win bet. The 7 horse in race 10. Sin Nombre. Was bumped at the start in his last race at the start. The Jockey / Trainer combination is 23%. Again this is a hunch play!

Ted Craven 08-20-2023 04:50 PM

Good luck Dap!


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