Quick Pick 3 - Contender Selection
 

Good morning;

I posted a result yesterday regarding a pick 3 play and Ted asked me to show how I did it. I like to play horizontal wagers, doubles, pick 3, and pick 4's. I usually like to pick a couple of different tracks to play steady so I can develop a model and hone in on what's important during contender selection. I decided this winter that I am going to play Fairgrounds as one of my main tracks, so I'm just starting to build a model. Fairgrounds is an hour behind so when I can get home from work, I can play the late pick 3 or 4 depending on the number of races. I decided to play the last pick 3 yesterday when I got home so here is how I did my contender selection. I use most of the screens and tab through each screen - here is how I do it. The first thing I do is to look at pace lines that are selected. I usually use the ones the program picks although I make changes if it is a router in a sprint race,etc. The race below is the last race in the sequence. I use the energy tab to start:

http://paceandcap.com/forums/picture...pictureid=1157

I eliminate any horse on this screen that doesn't have a colored number here as based on my experience, they usually don't win. Here is what I end up with:

http://paceandcap.com/forums/picture...pictureid=1158

Next I go to the PMTR/TRP tab and eliminate any horse that isn't within 10 points of the top rating:

http://paceandcap.com/forums/picture...pictureid=1165

Here is what's left:

[IMG]http://paceandcap.com/forums/picture...pictureid=1166

As you can see, using these 2 eliminations I'm down to 4 contenders. Keep in mind that the more contentious a race is, there may be a lot more contenders here early on. Continued in the next post.

The next screen is the segments screen. I usually look at this to see if how it looks. One of the things I do if I have a track model is to check the computed beaten lengths at the finish. Based on past information in some of my models and tracks is that this can be a very strong indicator for the win if you are in the top 4. Since I don't have a model for the Fairgrounds yet to determine if this a viable statement, I didn't use it here.

I go to the next tab which is primary factors and I look for any horses that don't have any colored highlights and eliminate those horses. That wasn't the case with this race so I didn't have any eliminations.

Next I will go to BL/BL screen and see who are the top 4 contenders and make a note of that. The last screen is RX; I will look at this to see which horses from BL/BL have strong corollary support. Doing all that I have the following horses from each race as my contenders:

http://paceandcap.com/forums/picture...pictureid=1162

As you can see, I've eliminated the horses that haven't had a start on turf as they usually don't win even though there numbers look very strong and I have 3 contenders.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/picture...pictureid=1163

http://paceandcap.com/forums/picture...pictureid=1168

As you can see, I have 3 contenders in the first two legs and four in the last. Depending on how many contenders I have left in any leg, I'll go to the POH screens and see if I can make any eliminations. I may also look at the horses past performances to see if any are declining in form or not. I usually end up with 3 or 4 horses at the end. In this case I eliminated the 12. I got lucky in the last leg as when I did the wager, I see I put in the 3 horse instead of the 13. I modify this method some when I have a model as I can then usually have some other elimination factors available. Good luck to everyone!

Thanks for posting your approach Bill.
Tim

Huge thank you Bill
 

Bill,

You learn something new every single day, and your approach is much appreciated, and fantastic.

Don't forget to cash!!

Jon

thanks bill............
nash

Thanks guys, I appreciate the kind words. Yesterdays hit was nice but check this one out........I used the same methodology I described above and just hit this a few minutes ago:

http://paceandcap.com/forums/picture...pictureid=1169

I'm alive for the last leg with the 5,9,13 with payoffs of $686, $501, and $3200 which would make a very nice day. 5 mtp.......

The 9 wins for another nice hit. I was watching the race and my heart starting pounding when the 13 was making the turn in 3rd, he was moving with the 9 but got pinched off when the 9 made his move.

[IMG]http://paceandcap.com/forums/picture...pictureid=1170[/IMG]

Outstanding Job Bill.
Tim

Real great job on this one Bill l!!! When you are willing to put in the work the REWARDS will follow.
Congratulations
Darryl

Great job Mr. Bill thanks also giving a detailed approach on how
you do it. Very nice of you to share.

Jeff