Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - Wood Memorial: An Opportunity Race

The Wood fell out perfectly with our tools. We know that RX3 and EPR/TPR are key ratings. Along of course with the Leverage Pace scores.
The Leverage Pace screen. Top 5 RX3 horses as contenders. note how clearly the number 1 horse stands out. We look at the EPR/TPR. (Note: The higher the class race it appears statistically that TPR becomes more important.) This is a great opportunity race with our Key horse at 7/2.
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The Segments screen shows us that even though there are 20 Early Speed Points, the Computed Beaten lengths F1 and SC show us that it well could be Early with just a battle between 1 and 5. The 1 appears to do well if it runs late. So the 1 becomes clearer as a key.

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We take a look at the New Pace screen for a total past performance look at the race and we see two things. One the red or Early horses appear to be the best overall. It sort of looks like a battle between the 1 and the 5 to get the lead. The 2 the favorite looks to be in trouble. I put a box around the top 6 horses and graphed either Early or Late they are the top 6. The finished as the top 6 finishers.

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And the chart shows us it did run early. RX3, Leverage Pace and EPR/TPR get us the win, Exacta and Trifecta. A great opportunity race.

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