Factor X and Factor W, What do they tell us?
 

How accurate is FX? What does it best predict? How about FW? When are these tools most useful?
Bill and I have been pushing each other in the study of RDSS factors in our 4700+ database. We will probably be adding races to it in the near future. We are both learning to use AI to really dig into just how powerful our tools are in predicting race outcomes. In the early days of the methodology we looked at 20 race cycles. But did we really know how our predictors were working? Bill and I are on a quest to ask the right questions and gather data that helps RDSS uses to make informed decisions.
Today we are posting our results that answer some of the questions about FX and FW.
When we queried our Database through AI here is how we designed the parameters for this particular study.

Attachment 55671

I will leave the interpretation to you. Here is the Data. There are 3 tables one each for Dirt, Turf and Poly. What do you think? Is this helpful?

Attachment 55672

Attachment 55673

Attachment 55674

What do you see in these charts?

First, thank you to Dick and Bill for taking the time to deep dive into this and put real data behind the question. This kind of work helps all of us better understand what the RDSS readouts are actually telling us instead of just assuming we know. Looking at these charts, my first takeaway is that FX and FW are not necessarily single-horse prediction tools, but they do appear to be very useful contender-zone tools. The strongest pattern I see is that once you expand to the Top 5, both factors do a very good job of containing the winner across dirt, turf, and poly. Top 3 looks a little too restrictive in many cases, but Top 5 seems to be where the usefulness really shows up.

One thing this also made me think about is the relationship between FX and the turn. In many races, the winning move does not suddenly appear in the stretch; it often begins on the turn, where horses either sustain position, advance into contention, or start to come apart. Since FX combines early involvement with finishing ability, I do not see it as a direct turn-time factor, but I do think a strong FX horse may often be showing that it handled that middle-race transition well enough to still finish. To me, that makes FX valuable as a confirmation factor. If a horse fits the race structure and also lands inside the Top 5 of FX or FW, that is meaningful. I would not use either factor blindly as an automatic win button, but I would absolutely respect them as contender validation tools.

Dick and Bill thanks

Jeff

Thank you! Great work.

Well the dawn was coming
Heard him ringing on my bell
He said, my name's the TEACHER
Oh that is what I call myself
And I have a lesson
That I must impart to you
It's and old expression
But I insist it's TRUE

opening verse of the TEACHER by Jethro Tull 1970

Thank you TEACHER for the help you give me!!!
please DON'T STOP WHAT YOU DO SO WELL!!

K.C. aka Stormbringer

now it is MANHATTAN TIME with some GOOD reading from you

Thanks for the compliments, Guys! I am really glad that my work is helpful.

Have a great Handicapping Summer.

Dick

thanks Dick................

Ignacio

Hi! everybody!!!!!! NEED HELP! am taking a couple weeks off at Baja Norte Mexico
and i can't hookup neither with tvg.com or trackmaster;i wonder if this two sites are block by CALIENTE CASINOS! ANY HELP IS WELCOME.
THANKS GUYS. IGNACIO