CD 9/17/26 - Races 1, 2, 4 & 7
 

Capped the four non-maiden races at Churchill tonight. I went back through the pacelines, made a few changes where I thought the more recent/comparable line was more representative, then reran everything after scratches.

Trying to put more emphasis on Race Demand first and then look for agreement in BL/BL, Rx, Primary, TPR and NewPace rather than just chasing the horse with the most #1s.

R1: 2 - 6 - 10 - 3
I prefer #2 One Mor Story as the early/pressing horse. #6 Aerate is the main OTE danger. I’ll also use 10 and 3 underneath. The ML favorite #5 Alston is underneath only for me.

R2: 10 - 1 - 6 - 5 - 7
#10 Sussudio is my top overall horse. #1 Galatina interests me because she should get a better tactical position than the stronger late horses. #6 Heart Spin is the main late threat.

R4: 6 - 2 - 5 - 7
Very close between #6 Madonna Of Loreto and #2 She’s The Law. I give #6 a slight edge based on current form and the overall readouts. #5 Sina is the speed horse I don’t want to ignore.

R7: 7 - 1 - 6A - 2A - 9
#7 So Sandy is my Best Bet of the day. The scratch of #8 Malarchuk made the pace picture much friendlier for him, and he is now my strongest combination of Race Demand and RDSS rankings. #1 Gould’s Gold and #6A Gun Party are the main horses I want underneath.

Early Double: 2,6 / 10,1,6

Straight bets will still depend somewhat on price.

I’ll come back after the races and post the results.

May the HORSE be with you!

Make them pay dearly Jimmy! I am downloading the card as we speak and may put together an early pick 5 wager. I am gearing up for Belmont tomorrow. All the best!!

Thanks Brian! I’m looking at the early Pick 5 too since I’ve already worked R1, R2 and R4 pretty thoroughly. Going to dig into R3 and R5 now and see if we can build something without spreading all over the place. Good luck tonight, and I’m with you on Belmont tomorrow. Let’s make ’em pay!

Tomorrow and Saturday are great racing days at Parx too. I'll be there with the Mrs.

I singled the 1 the first. After newpace selections I ran the race through Energy as a secondary confirmation. Also I hope you got a chance to read my reply to your comment earlier. It is long but I tried to be as detailed as I could. A friend of mine will be at Parx for the PA Derby. Since I live in Florida now I can only watch it from Xpressbet. Best of skill! I am going to put together a 20 cent pick 6 at Churchill.

Brian, nice call singling the 1 in the opener. We completely missed him, so I definitely want to go back and look at how your NewPace-to-Energy confirmation got you there. That’s exactly the kind of thing I’m trying to tighten up.

We did better later with the 1-6-10 running 1-2-3 in R2 and Madonna Of Loreto winning R4, but R7 got us when No Bien Ni Mal won. A few good lessons from the card already.

I also saw your note about the longer reply. I’m going to go through that carefully because I want to understand exactly how you’re using Race Demand, FW/VDC and Energy together.

Best of skill at Belmont today, and good luck with the Pick 6!

Brian, I went back through R1 using your sequence and I think I'm starting to see what you saw on Gallo De Fuego. NewPace had the POR at 80, and Gallo's range was about 80-85, so even his pressured LOW met the projected POR. Then on Energy he had the lowest %Med at 66.6, #1 L/EP, #1 F3 and the best deceleration figure.

What I'm still trying to understand is the final step that made him a single for you. Aerate actually ranked better in FW/VDC, and One Mor Story was still very strong on the conventional readouts. Was Gallo's combination of meeting the POR plus that Energy profile enough for you to separate him from those two, or was there something else on Energy that I'm not seeing?

Jimmy,

My apologies for not responding sooner. Been on the road all day. Race 1 was deemed pressured low or late leaning. I singled the 1 because of the late horses he was the best. I had the 1 ranked top 3 FX. The 1 was a the number 2 ranked Newpace horse for late (the little blue 2). And the running line I chose for the 1 he had almost perfecty symmetry on the E/L graph and that running line he had a %med of 68.2 which is sustained presser (SP)
So I singled him. As for the early pick-5 which we discussed. I went 4 of 5. The first time starter in race 3 got me. I liked the 9 and 4. If you did not see the payout it was over $7,000 for that pick-5. Needless to say I was ill after that. Good luck tomorrow! Should be some good mutuels tomorrow.

Brian

Brian, thank you. That clears up what I was missing.

The key for me is that once you classified the race as pressured low / late leaning, you were no longer just looking for the horse with the best overall FW/VDC or conventional rankings. You were looking for the best horse within the group that fit the projected race shape, and Gallo’s NewPace late ranking, FX, E/L symmetry and %Med all supported him.

That makes a lot more sense now.

One question: when the Energy profile points strongly to one horse like that, but FW/VDC prefers another, how much separation do you need before you’re comfortable making the Energy horse a single? Is the E/L symmetry usually the deciding factor for you, or is it more about the total combination?

And 4-for-5 on a Pick 5 paying over $7,000 is brutal. I’d have been sick too. Great work getting that close though, and I really appreciate you taking the time to explain your process in detail.

Best of skill!
Jimmy