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-   -   Fgx 12-23-06 (contest Day) Single Horse Win Bets (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1799)

partsnut 12-22-2006 04:32 AM

Fgx 12-23-06 (contest Day) Single Horse Win Bets
 
These Are My Single Horse Picks To Win.
I Used Entropy For My Final Decision.
If A Horse Is Scratched, Pass The Race.

If I Were To Bet All Selections, I Would Need At Least
3 Out Of 9 Winners On Average To Make A Small Profit Or Be At
A Virtual Break Even, Depending Upon What The Winners Might Pay.
As You Can See, I Am Not A Proponent Of 2 Horse Betting. In My Opinion, It Is A Loser. Exactas And Exotic Bets Will Also Take It's Toll Over The Long Run Because The Track Take Out Is At It's Highest For These Type Of Bets. You Are Also Conceeding Lots Of Losing Bets. Most Exactas Are Undervalued.
The Greatest Drawback To Single Pick Win Betting Is The Possibility Of A Protracted Losing Streak. You Have To Be A Disciplined Player To Bet In This Manner. If You Are Hitting 1 Out Of 4 Races On Average (25%) You Could Conceivably Endure A 19 -25 Race Losing Streak In The Worst Scenario.

I Normally Will Play A Horse That Is 3-1 Odds Or Better.
2 - 3 Minutes Before Post.
Sometimes These Picks Are Bet Down In The Final Few Minutes And Could Fall Below The 3-1 Mark That I Have Set For Myself. This Comes With The Territory.

Being Selective Restricts Me To The Value Races.
Where I Can Make Money.
I bet less and make more. I do not conceed losing bets.

Remember, You Are Not In The Game To Break Even Or Lose Money.
In Reality, It Is Not A Game And Should Be Treated Like An Investment Or Business.
It's not about how many winners you can pick but how much money you can make.

When I Do A Contest, Anything Goes.

Race - 1 (6)

Race - 2 pass.........first Time Starters

Race - 3 (10)

Race - 4 (7)

Race - 5 (1)

Race - 6 (9)

Race - 7 (2)

Race - 8 (4) Contest Race

Race - 9 (3)

Race - 10 (13) if Scratched, Pass The Race

Wishing You All A Very Merry Christmas.:d

partsnut 12-23-2006 02:21 PM

My Picks For Races 3, 9, 10 Were Scratched.
Here Are The The Replacement Picks
For These Races:

Race - 3 (1)

Race - 9 (3)

Race - 10 (6)


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