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-   -   SNY4 -- Exotics (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2635)

alydar_ David 07-15-2007 04:52 PM

SNY4 -- Exotics
 
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This is based on boxing the top three choices in the exacta. These picks were made from the screens with no consideration for odds. The bet costs $12 a race.

alydar_ David 07-15-2007 05:02 PM

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Putting all the money on the top horse to win was more profitable than playing exactas.

Here's a screenshot I shouldn't show as it's only based on four races.

However, I played these races and two of them were cold trifecta hits. As they say, "This warrants further investigation."

I boxed the top four selections for $1, a bet which costs $24.
I only did this on races where I thought a big hit was possible.

alydar_ David 07-15-2007 07:08 PM

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Here's one of those tris. The trifecta isn't real hard to figure out.

alydar_ David 07-15-2007 07:09 PM

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The rankings screen:

alydar_ David 07-15-2007 07:10 PM

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The result:

Jonathan Steele 07-15-2007 09:31 PM

I want that fourth place finisher (to complete the superfecta)! :)

Jon :D

alydar_ David 07-16-2007 01:11 AM

Hahaha! You and me both, Jon.

:>)

alydar_ David 07-18-2007 03:28 PM

Exactas -- boxing the top two
 
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Boxing the top three choices for this cycle returned a profit. The ROI was 1.21

Today I hit the winner of the second race at DEL which was nice. It paid $9.20 to win. I bet $5 to win on the horse. That's what I'm doing for this next 21 race cycle, advance betting $5 to win on the top horse only (I lost the first five races of this cycle yesterday).

I noticed that I had the exacta cold today (but didn't play it). It returned $34.40. This got me to thinking, how would I have done on that last cycle if I'd boxed the top two choices instead of the top three?

The answer: boxing the top two was more profitable than boxing the top three. The ROI would have been 2.20, or two dollars and twenty cents returned for every dollar invested.

Ironically, I would have missed the biggest payoff I'd have caught by boxing three, but STILL would have made more money with the two horse box.

Here are the stats.

Note, this is not conclusive (or statistically significant), but I'm tracking this for the next cycle and will report the results.

Jonathan Steele 07-19-2007 12:14 AM

Hahaha! You and me both, Jon.

:>)


That's where angles and "mainstream" handicapping tools come into play in order to get the fourth and fifth horse (sometimes sixth in a very large field) that'll finish in the fourth slot.

Regards,

Jon :D

alydar_ David 07-19-2007 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonathan Steele (Post 21730)

That's where angles and "mainstream" handicapping tools come into play in order to get the fourth and fifth horse (sometimes sixth in a very large field) that'll finish in the fourth slot.

Regards,

Jon :D

It's also where the "All" button comes into play.

;>)


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