Ted are any of the RDSS factors equivalent to APR
 

Ted,

Looking thru the RDSS factors, I cant find the average pace rating. Brohamer states that the AP rating is the average of all 3 fractions in sprints, and the average of the EPR and SP in routes. If not could I place my own calculations for this in the custom screen.


Thanks
Carl

Hmmm,

Not try to be picky but how difficult would it be to have AP, EP, SP displayed on a single page in fps. If its to much trouble I can just do hand calcs for now. Hopefully in the future I could program this into the custom page.


Thanks
Carl

Well,


After doing some hand calcs I realized that total energy is the some of all three fraction velocities. So it can probably be used instead APR which is the average of the three fraction velocities. Now if I can find find a velocity equivalent for SP I should be good.


Carl

Carl,

I could probably create a screen as one of the Custom screens available under the Custom Tab to show the old Phase III factors you mention (EP SP AP).

With RDSS, I have been trying to focus on the modern Sartin Methodology, so I don't want to make them part of the main screens. These older factors have essentially entered the mainstream and are public domain knowledge since Modern Pace Handicapping, thus do not have nearly as high an impact value on mutuels as they once did. Doc had already moved on from those basic pace calculations by the time Tom Brohamer published his book in 1990. Just for the record, in my opinion, the Bottom Line/Betting Line and V/DC readouts highlight much better mutuels in the top 3 than EP SP AP can ever do.

That said, I support any tinkering or personal usage of factors which diligent practitioners choose to make (and study the consequent results of). Let me see if I can get something worked up in the next while (though to be fair, it will have to stand in line behind a few other Custom screens/factors already requested by others).

To review: you can get all the Phase III numbers you need from the Velocity Tab:

Attachment 10370

EP = SC (velocity to the 2nd call)
SP = (SC + F3) /2
AP = (F1 + F2 + F3) / 3 (sprints)
AP = (EP + SP) / 2 (routes)

(The foregoing is from memory - my mom has my copy of MPH, so I hope those are correct.)

I know it's an annoying bunch of calculations by hand:(. Let's see what happens in the near future.

Ted

Carl,

As a replacement for SP, consider tracking Factor W (FW), rank shown on the BL/BL screen and deviation from best (Perceptor view) on the Primary screen.

FW, like SP, is sensitive to sprints versus routes. Although it employs EPR and LPR rather than velocities (same thing only different...):

FW sprints = 2x EPR + LPR
FW routes = EPR + 2x LPR

Ted

Ted,

Thanks so much, I know you are really busy. I will attempt to make the adjustments you suggested. One last question, in the velocity screen the heading SC stands for "second call"? Oh what a bozo I am, I was thing that was the stretch call!

I generally use AP,SP, and EP for my model but I will try establishing a model using the RDSS factors you stated.


Thanks
Carl

Carl
Some feedback regarding the velocity screen shown in post #4 in this thread.

After selecting lines/contenders look at the fastest F1 horse. Then look at the horse with the best "Sc".

OK wait for races where there are 2 different horses doing this and they are BOTH pure early runners. Pure early means in their pp's at todays distance structure they have NOT passed horses in their past performance charts.

Careful about mislabeling a horse "early" when he actually can pass horses ok? A mistake I make myself.

Matter of fact look at the 24 buck winner of the Malibu stakes I posted before it ran. I label the horse "E" which was totally wrong Carl.

Look at his pp's and you see he DEFINITELY can pass horses if he has too man.

So one of the earlies is fastest at 1c but the 2nd is fastest at 2c.

If you have time to do this work 20 races and see how many times one of the 2 actually wins the race. Then if and when they do win which one is it? The F1 leader of the 2c leader? In the process of exploring this the races themselves will teach you all about pace.

In my opinion the races themselves and the working of them in earnest are our best teachers.

Hope this helps and here is a screen shot of MY mislabeling of a horse's runnnig style. This guy can run both early or other than early.The most dangerous horse in racing if he is FAST.Learn from my mistake.:)

Best of luck
Richie

Ted,


Thanks a bunch. Luckily I had him!!!

Carl

Carl,

Yep, Second Call velocity - that is, average velocity from the beginning to the 4f point in sprints, and 6f point in routes.

Ted

Ted,

I find the above statement quite intriguing, and its something I will definitely keep at the forefront of my mind. In fact, if I can find the time I will make an attempt to do models using both the old factors and the RDSS factors. I do believe that the RDSS factors are better then the older factors. What is interestinng is maybe about six months ago Dick Schmidt had stated that he had taken a long hiatus from horseracing, but he decided to do some handicapping one weekend using the principals Brohmer had taught him during the writing of MPH. Long story short, he stated it still works, those old factors still perform well because most people believe that the mainstream has been saturated with this info. Now granted Dick has been handicapping at such a high level for so long he could almost make anything work!!

I'm certainly in no position to state one way or another, I do love RDSS or I wouldnt be here.

Horseracing is a pysch game - and I do know that gambling on horses is much easier and enjoyable then handicapping for most. I also feel that many serious bettors like systems rather then putting in all the hard work on a daily basis. Me, I'm looking to make withdrawals not deposits, so I'm quite sure that with this fine software I am in a position to develop a style of handicapping that will be profitable in a year or two.

I thank you for your continued effort, dedication, and all the information your willing to share. I'm so excited in anticipation of the implementation of modeling in RDSS. I know its probably a little ways off, but I have plenty to work with and digest till then.


Thanks
Carl