Energy At Santa Anita Today Races 5 and 10
 

Since I don't get a chance to post much due to time constraints and I've been reading some of the great hits folks have obtained with KGEN, here are 2 races today with plain old ENERGY. I use the TSN 50 cent pp's which I will attach and manually input lines into ENERGY.

I will post the final bar graph screen using both the "2 alternate adjustment" and the "3 manual adjustment". The manual adjustment produces the same results basically as the "1 auto adjust" since I don't change the generated pace adjustments.

I will then post the results if I can figure it all out. In both of these races, my feelings were that there were at least 3 horses that would go for the lead so the race would be won OTHER than early, thus I would lean to the LATE EXDC side.

Here Is Race 10
 

Race 10

Isosa,

You say:

"In both of these races, my feelings were that there were at least 3 horses that would go for the lead so the race would be won OTHER than early, thus I would lean to the LATE EXDC side."


How did the varigate indicate the race would run?

Froggy

Just so we're clear, these are not redboarded. I handicapped and played these today. In the 5th, I had the win and exacta. In the 10th, I had just the win bet.

I've never been a tri or super player but I find that I'm leaving a ton of money on the table, so I'm trying to learn how to play them efficiently with a small bankroll. At least both tri's were certainly gettable by analyzing the fractional EXDC results and the super in the 5th just drew a "wow" from me. The 10th only had the "super high five", which is a little too much for me.

I can tell you that these are not isolated examples. There have been several races like this the last couple of weeks, including polytrack races, both dirt and sprints. You just have to wait for the right situations. My prime situations are when I'm comfortable with my contender and paceline selections and most/all the horses on the EXDC bar graphs on both adjustments are say 5-1 and up.

I read somewhere (maybe at Pace Advantage) that the old Sartin programs can't decipher polytrack - absolutely flase, IMHO. The ENERGY program is smarter than you and I. Here's what works for me:

1-Stick with one track - if you're patient, there are plenty of opportunities like today's. I can leverage my 20 years of familiarity with the SoCal circuit.

2-Cap only the non maiden races. For me, I just can't get maiden races profitable in the long run. I think it's a mental block and ENERGY probably has less input to work with. You may also want to stick with 4 year & older races for a little more stability.

3-Feed it the correct contenders/pacelines to the best of your ability. As you can see with the 5th, I probably fed it more than I should but I was just uncomfortable leaving some of those out. ENERGY did it's job.

4-Wait for the right odds situations. Usually full fields with a 5/2 or 3-1 morning line favorite or a publicity horse that looks vulnerable.

5-Take a look at the pace matchup, even if not as thoroughly as Richie or Jim would analyze it. Just knowing today's races would most likely favor the Late EXDC gave me an edge.

If anyone has any questions on why or why not regarding contenders and/or pacelines and I can help, let me know, and I'll help if I can.

Once you take the emotion out of it, if you're honest with yourself, when the program fails, take a look at yourself honestly and see how you could have approached the race differently. All these Sartin older programs are excellent if you "feed" them properly. The mutuals are there - don't let frustration get the best of you. If you blow a race, get off the mat and get the next one. Ask me how I know this!

Good capping.

Lou

To answer your question, in race 5, the variegate said "sustained" with the 3 adjust and "presser" with the 2 adjust. In the 10th race, both adjustments produced an "early" variegate.

In terms of running style, every horse in both races was designated "sustained" by the ENGEN based on my pacelines.

I DO NOT use the variegate in my decisions, although I will look at it. In the 5th race, I felt more comfortable with it because I had all the horses I felt would be out front entered as contenders.

In the 10th, a horse that would clearly be out front to me was the 10, and It was NOT a contender for me, as well as possibly the #4 pressuring the front. I won't stick horses in who are not win contenders for me just to produce a proper variegate on the screen - I can come to that conclusion on my own.

Also, in both these mile turf races, you had multiple horses in far outside posts that I felt would pressure the front and in my experience, this causes every one up front to use more energy early, again giving the late contenders a little more of an edge. It's a short run to that first turn. It works for me.

EDIT: And at those odds levels, I have more room to account for error and chaos, which are part of every race.

I LOVE this post!

A gentleman who relies on himself and trusts his instincts and guts instead of waiting for a software or someone to "do me something".

Congrats Lou on tremendous capping,wagering and analysis.Keep rocking

Isosa,

I too am a firm believer in learning one circuit well.
And since I had so much sucess with Energy years ago that I am now doing a workout of it on the New York tracks.
In studying the record on the Energy Worksheet there may be a one horse betting situation that looks profitable.
In the last four days it came up 15 times and won seven with an average mutuel of $7.94 and has been out of the money only once.

I love RDSS and what it can do, But I also have always loved energy and what it can do.

I have never used anything but the Auto Adjust and have had good results.

Froggy

Froggy: That spot play sounds very promising - hope you can generate some good profits for yourself with it.

I agree with you on the auto adjust but I've been burned enough on some outstanding mutuals by not looking at the 2 adjust when logic dictates it. Sometimes one has to make some mixed or spotty paceline selections from different surfaces, out of circuit tracks, or different distance structures from today's conditions, so it's worth it for me to give the 2 adjust a look and clearly think through why it may be moving a contender up. Again, at the right odds, there is more room to account for error margin/chaos.

Lsosa

After seeing your post I fired up the old thoromation program and hand entered the following lines:
the 1- line 3
the 2- line 1
the 3- line 4
the 4- line 3
the 7- line 3
the 8- line 2
the 9- line 3

These were the closest finish in a turf route in their recent past performances. I agree with your call of the winner going other than early and did not enter lines for the early runners.

Going to both the matchup pace and kxdc pace screens your winning 1 horse is dominant late horse on both screens and on the matchup pace screen also dominates the turn time matchup as well.

With all lines coming from Socal circuit except the 3 horse I just went by the auto adjust and didn't touch anything.

There was more than a 2 point difference in total energies of the contenders so I also used the 2 adjust to check the readouts. Doing this the winning 1 still dominates both screens mentioned above as well as winning the sp preplay screen by a good margin.

Congratulations and thank you for putting this out there so to speak. While I didn't bet the race I certainly learned something.

TS: I'm glad this was of some value to you. Without getting into how I selected my final contenders, when I first scanned the race and checked which pacelines I might use if I made the horse a contender, for the horses you listed, we match 100% on pacelines.

I just ran it through EXDC with TM and Thoromation actually had it running early in both adjust modes, again because I was missing an early contender or two, and this will mess with the "variegate". In all the screens you mentioned, yes, the 1 was dominant, and on the LP preplay screens, the one was dominant.

It als0 had the "1" in PR, HE, SP, & LX. Even with a lack of early speed, it was #3 in both EP and FX under the "1 adjust".

Here's a quote from the Pace Advantage board:

"Roger Stein has a radio show right-or at least he did? Maybe he can comment on it. The horse figured but I was scared away by the long lay-off and trainer stats"

and on the P6:

I can't believe somebody hit that thing...............

Roger Friggin Stein brings in a huge price in the finale and somebody hits it?

My thoughts: Roger Friggin Stein, you the man!

On to the next puzzle.