Overcoming Trainer Adversity: the City Stormer Story
 

Jack Carava has been training City Stormer since at least 8/18/07 and he just claimed him back after losing him 2 races back.

Don't know Carava personally, but he has to be just about the biggest dumbass in training. It took 11 races for Carava to finally get it right:

1) City Stormer is NOT a router
2) City Stormer is NOT a turf horse
3) City Stormer is a SPRINTER but needs MORE than 5.5F

I've seen this horse run 2 huge races going 5.5F and each time, he's been routed next time out (by Carava and the other trainer)

Today, City Stormer got to go a distance he could handle, 7F, and he GALLOPED at a very generous 5:1.

Easy game when you know how to place your horses.

And, after 2 tough beats at long odds, it's nice to have the game 'make sense' again.

Tfm
 

One must remember that some of the training decisions are made by owners.
The trainer must follow some instructions , or maybe lose the client.

On the positive side, you were wise enough to wager on the horse when it
was properly placed. Many were not aware of horse's specialty.

good handicapping,
BobC:)

I don't know about the particulars of this horse, but Jack Carava has been a more than competent mainly claiming trainer for the past 20 years at give or take a 15% win rate. La Canada Stables has been one of his main owners during this period and although Almeida hasn't been anywhere near a high % rider in many moons, Carava does use him successfully - 19% in 32 mounts in the last year.

Maybe the owners liked the horse and didn't want to lose him - they claimed him back a race after they lost him and he did earn checks in 8 of his 10 races showing.

trainer adversity
 

Your comment about trainers reminds me of the often made remarks of
how low a trainer's win % is in a given situation. This is one of the reasons
why the Sartin Method purposely excluded trainer win %'s and stats back in
the day.

I cannot count the times at the OTB or race track when iv'e heard people
say a horse is a loser , or can't win because the trainer is 1 for 35.

My question would be to them. yes, but is he 1 for 35 with the type of horse
being entered in today's race. My last memory of this type situation, was
a horse wose odds was 27-1, and i prayed the odds would drift higher.

The horse payed $55.00 and keyed a signer trifecta and exacta. So much for
bad stats. Doc reminded all that you were betting on the horse, not the trainer. It's a lot easier to see what the horse can do than read a trainer's
mind. Keep up the good handicapping !

BobC:)

I don't disagree with your comment, Bob, or Doc's main premise but there are some trainers that I've followed for 20 years that just don't justify a bet on the SoCal circuit. I have also lost a couple of good opportunities sticking to that tact.

On the Let's Get Serious Seminar tapes, Brohamer mentions Lee Rousso (I remember he had one of the first 900 seminar/tout lines in SoCal and won a couple of tournaments) always told him that trainer stats were too contradictory. If today was a claiming grass race and the trainer showed a 25% win stat in those races but was using a jockey he had only won with once in his last 50 starts with, what do you do?

To your point, it's probably best to handicap the horse.

Here are some relevant stats:

1) Carava, the trainer: 9 wins out of 91 entries this meet, for a whopping 9%.

2) Almeida, the jockey: 1 for 32 for the meet or 3%

3) City Stormer: 2 wins out of 32 lifetime starts.

All in all, it was definitely a BETOUT proposition.

Did you say you bet the horse in your first post or was I mistaken?

I absolutely did. He ran a particular 'angle' in TWO of his races that I look for.

I'm just mocking 'commonplace' statistics, as used on some of the racing forums. For example, on another board, much was made of the abysmal performance of horses breaking from the 12 (or outside) hole going 9F at the new GP. Of course, that didn't serve to make Big Brown any less of a lock than he already was.

In the case of City Stormer, he was just a victim of poor handling. 5:1 probably doesn't look too good from the stats end, however, he was good value to me.

carava is a betting trainer: expect form to be obscured.
carava performs better at some meets than others. in this, he is like many SCal trainers, aiming at a specific target for his barn.
carava, believe it or not, is human, and subject to vagaries. therefore, he will do better or worse as the deities decide. all in all, a good horseman.

tlt