SAR 08/07 race 2
 

Same race as discussed in the Power move thread (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4329)

Here's a different take on this race, actually unrelated to the Power move discussion, so I'm separating it from the other thread.

For all 6 runners, take the best paceline of the last 3, similar distance and surface, use the best Perceptor Total (or Total Energy, in this case). The BL/BL and Segments screens identify pretty clearly who is the gapped best horse (add in the #3's line 9 for 2 lines better than everyone else). Check the E/L graph to see who is the most opposite energy distribution (#4).

What should the exacta box be: 3-5-4. What should the trifecta box be: 3-5-4-whatever. (Result was 3-4-5).
.
Somebody remind me why I'm not working Saratoga at the moment??

In all fairness, since I did not work this in real time (I was blabbing with Richie), I fear I might have balked at all those Earlies and headed over to the 4 to win. A reminder: if you have a documented method which throws off regular hits - work THAT method. You may miss hits you would have gotten with a different method, and that other method will miss some hits you will get with THIS method, etc. That's how we can all use the same tools and take turns all making money...sometimes on different races.

http://www.sartinmethodology.com/images/sar0807-2.gif

Charlie D, whether you go with Richie's take on Power move application, or the readouts I used above, the #3 looms pretty large. Use whichever (or both) of what works for you!

Ted

Hi Ted


I've noticed you've used a Poly line for the #6

Whats wrong with Line 1 or 2 mate??

Charlie,

Nothing wrong with his last 2 lines - but they are each much lower Total Energy than the 3rd. The horse is fit, and capable of running his race, according to recent performance. Therefore, he deserves to be rated off the best (recently) that he can do when fit - the 3rd line. That line put him down the list, and the other 2 put him further down. Therefore, the best he is capable of is not good enough in this mix. In my approach, I would leave the 3rd line in for him and he would be the 5th horse in the set, but not a likely contender today.

I guess the proposition is: rate a horse off their best (though perhaps not outrageously best) if they seem fit. Why penalize them for trouble, or surface difference unnecessarily. If doing so makes it a strong contender, then I'd try to answer other questions such as does the surface switch really make a difference, or are they likely to duplicate that best ever (i.e. are they improving or did they peak in a cycle). If I had knowledge that a certain track/surface transfered too fast or too slowly to today's track/surface, I would try to use something else, or downgrade the adjusted paceline - but I don't have that info for KEE poly to SAR dirt, so I just go with the ITV. In this case, it was moot, but FWIW those are considerations I find myself cycling through.

Ted

http://www.sartinmethodology.com/images/sar0807-2a.gif

Ted


Good explanation imo

:cool:

23
 

Hello Ted

On your top screen shot for the 6 horse
what are those number boxes - 2 and 3 ?
They are just under the RDSS Desktop tap and to the left of the EP running style

Thanks
Bill

Bill,

Next version, just helpful buttons to make 2 equal panels or 3 equal panels for your particular screen size and font zoom choice. Not sure if that's how they'll end up, but saves you having to resize things by dragging the splitbars.

Ted

zoom
 

Thanks Ted
That sounds like a nice helpful feature

Skype Is all hooked up I made my first calls
Sorry Ted I have 3 lady friends who I much rather speak to and show off
my latest toys then you;) But I will get back to work and hook up with you
But anyway things are working great

Bill