Maiden information
 

I am looking for any and all information about handicapping maidens (the horse type guys!). I haved started a study of maiden races and would appreciate any references of any kind on the subject of maiden handicapping. I haven't had much luck in finding material on the subject in my own handicapping library.

Thanks for anything you can contribute.


Bill Lyster

Maiden Information
 

I have a suggestion. There are programs with trainer angle stats. I think they use 40 different trainer angles. I believe formulator and equisims that I know of have them. It gives you the win % for these stats by giving you the best angle with the highest trainer win % for that angle.

Example mdsw dropping into maiden 27%

Example fts 30%

Example all weather to dirt 22%

This lets you compare the horses even if they show no information.

Good Luck with your research. Jigsaw

Bill
 

I did a google search, I used the google search box on Pace and Cap:)

It looks like the better overall handicapping books
all have Maiden and two year old sections

I hope you find happy reading
and success

Bill

bill, i use TM's stats. i use roi% for sires first asking, dirt sprint, route, turf sp rt turf stats, then i look at trainers same listings. check out my post 9-11 selections on how i missed the 8 at bel yesterday. i outsmarted myself.
BUT many time the roi coloumn works for me.
Rverge aka MLcookie

Hello Bill,

Here are some thoughts.

Sir James (Quinn) said to bet the fastest horse in two year old races. By fastest horse he meant the horse that has run the fastest in the past.

The Sheets logic is to look for explosive two year olds – ones that are about to run their fastest. For filles that means a horse who has had two races, the second a little slower than the first. For males, that means a horse who has had two races, the second a little faster than the first. There are other patterns, but those are the two biggies. Note, in neither case do you want a horse who ran much better the second time out.

Dick Mitchell said to look for the horse that is going to have the lead at the second call. “Maidens don’t pass each other.” While that’s not entirely true, it’s good enough to rate flaming generalization status.

I don’t recall which Quinn or Mitchell books those concepts came from.

I've never heard that, and I'm having a little trouble understanding why there would be a difference in the second race definition between males and females.

Is it based on years of data, or just what exactly?

Thanks,

Steve

some logic is for the females is 2nd lasik as to 1st time as the fillies are timid and when they hit the point the 2nd time breathing is no problem.
hey tobby callet told me this one!
MLcookie

Steve, I don't have the sample size handy, but I'm sure it was statistically significant. I got it straight from Len Ragozin.

Why the difference? I have no idea. Any answer I gave would be purely speculative.

For fillies, those that than ran up to "0-two" worse in their second start moved forward 75% of the time.

For colts, those that ran up to "0-two" better in their second start moved forward 65% of the time.

I won't list any more than that as it may be protected material. It might be in his book; I haven't read it so I can't say for sure.

This was for turf and dirt. None of the horses were on lasix. The average forward move for both sexes was "Three and a half points" (on the Sheet scale).