Last Night at Mountianeer 12-15-08
 

Hello, I recently joined the group and started testing RDSS. Last night at Mountaineer in the 8th race you can really see the power of RDS and the Sartin Methodology.

The race was set up for other then early because of a speed dual between the 1, 4, and 7.

The 2 and the 6 figured to be the horses that benifited the most. They were ranked 1st and 2nd in the following: DCL, LPR, HID, FW, FX, PRIM LS, BL SCORE, VDC, SPN, E, TPP SUPP LS and in Fractals L and N.

The results are posted below:

2 Bold Command Peltroche F $35.60 $13.00 $8.80
6 Great Shot Feliciano R $16.20 $8.80
5 Windham Hill Nguyen T $4.40
4 Dodwell Davila J M

$2 Exacta (2-6) Paid $322.40

I am sure you all have seen this kind of thing numerous times before but I wanted to share it with everyone :)

I also want to thank everyone in this group that have shared and tried to help new people get off to a great start while learning the Sartin Methodology
I have spent many hours reading what has been posted and I am slowly learning my way... I know I have a long way to go but I do see hope for a great future thanks to this group!

Doug

Mnr
 

Welcome Doug

Great work Yes I just looked at the race
You called it perectly
I have 7 2 1 6 the two is sitting right there in tier 2

good work

readouts
 

Here is my BLBL

Welcome Doug and congrats on a terrific hit! There will be more
:)

Question
 

for Bill and Doug. What was your logic for using a poly track line for a dirt track? Was it an energy thing.

Bob

Bob,

Doug and Bill can also respond, but FWIW my take: half the horses in the race ran at Presquile (PID), a poly surface, so if a line from that track represents what the horse can do today (or conversely, a line from MNR understates what it is capable of when fit and versus today's matchup) then use a line that fairly makes the horse look good. Consider letting the ITV and DTV adjustments equalize tracks and distances unless you have repeated evidence that those adjustments are not working for a particular track/distance.

#2 Good is a closer (when it feels like running) and performed that way in each of its last 2 races. Line 2 was a top Total Energy (confirmed by line 5) and a more comparable distance than line 1 at 12f. Sticking within the last 3 or so lines does the trick. Also interesting, #2 is the ONLY horse who showed any workouts at all since its last race - at least some indication of trainer intention and horse's fitness today.

(Re #6 Great: either it is not in form today off its last, or it alternates ITM every other race recently. If it's possible it could contend today, use a line which will make it so: 4th, not 2nd. If it's too unknown, toss it.)

Bottom line: I try to match surfaces if I can choose, but if a horse seems fit, try not to disadvantage it, energy-wise. And good odds are also insurance against uncertainty;).

From the armchair...


Attachment 14620

BTW, Doug - welcome, and great hit!

From Bill
 

Looking at the adjusted pacelines screen using Val 4 mode

Question
 

Bill,
Is there any advantage in using the adjusted screen rather than the original. I use the original and I also notice that Richie does too. I have had success with this.
Ira

Ira
 

I probably am not wise to do races the way I do
But I do because I have very little confidence
in myself to use raw numbers and make decisions
Its the "who the heck am I" way I look at myself

As I brought up in an earlier post Every once in awhile
I break out other Sartin programs and
force myself to use original lines and look at adjustment.
However
It all comes back to one basic thing. What works for me?
Its just do the race the way you did with Doc
The best Sartin users all have red wrist
So I snap myself back and I say
as Doc did years ago in Baumont California
Hey Aline... Come meet Bill form New Jersey
HE IS GOOD !

And then from Tulsa OK a few years ago
Jim Bradshaw saying
Bill bring your computer and bet two horses YOU ARE GOOD


If you can win using raw then thats great
Doc knew there were guys like me who just are never going to be
good at all So he made a method for us

Bill




I

Thanks to all that responded.

As far as why I went back on the 2 and 6 to pick a line...it was because I did not feel that the before lines indicated what the horses could do today in the matchup sense. I also didin't want to use the 12 furlong race the 2 had just ran because of the longer distance. The race set up really well for speed to quit and I was looking closely at all the closers and it just worked out I guess.

Doug