Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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tfm 12-17-2008 02:56 PM

Fighters
 
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I'm interested in those 'fighters' that go against the grain. So, for example, this doesn't include those cases where 2 or 3 horses go 1-2-3 around the track.

I'll try to pick out the relevant fighters for the tracks I play on a give day.

One Vote is entered in today's 1st at HOL; gets blinkers off, he'll either not be with the pace or, at least, relax a bit, and is the heavy favorite.

Happenstance is entered in today's 7th at TP; will probably be 2nd choice to Fine Line (exacta).

RichieP 12-18-2008 05:35 AM

12/18
 
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I'm definitely looking at this one in today's 4th at Hawthorne John.

He moved pretty good into fastest pace last race before falling apart late. Should be some value.

#3 Arches Arrow @ 6/1 ml

Charlie D 12-18-2008 08:13 AM

Haw 4

Projected Pace 1c 22.7 (Atta Boy Cat)

1, shown nothing first start against 22.5, needs massive improvement, not impossible, but - Out
1A, FTS
2, placed against Projected, just beaten off 21.9, tandem winner -In
3, good run against 22,0, showed improved Early speed, before fading next time - In
4, Projected Pace horse, but faded - Out
5, a well beaten tandem loser on two previous runs - OUT
6, a well beaten tandem loser tandem loser on three previous runs - OUT
7, tandem loser on FTS, but only beaten a 1/2 - In for further consideration
8, tandem loser multiple times - OUT
9, well beaten FTS, tandem loser, needs massive improvement, not impossible, but - OUT



Contenders #2, #3 and #7


Back later

Charlie D 12-18-2008 10:38 AM

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#2 PP picture ~ 21.9 - 45.8 fractions helped OTE on Dec 4th


Question is, will this be reapeated today or will #7 be a little wiser and able conserve some of that Early energy shown FTO today

Charlie D 12-18-2008 11:14 AM

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#3 PP Picture ~ Only two Sprints here so Picture a bit more fuzzy, however, using what we have got, Line 1 suggests running fractions of 21.7 - 45.5 is somewhat beyond this horse and with that in mind, we use line 2

contenders stacked up

tfm 12-18-2008 02:17 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP (Post 45044)
I'm definitely looking at this one in today's 4th at Hawthorne John.

He moved pretty good into fastest pace last race before falling apart late. Should be some value.

#3 Arches Arrow @ 6/1 ml

I'm behind with charts at HAW since the turf season is over. I did the chart for that race, however. As you can see, while four of them were going at it pretty good the 1st two calls, the one that actually came away with a lead was Cart's T C B. I'd want her or Jake's Soldier back. Of course, I haven't looked at the replay, which is almost always more telling.

RichieP 12-18-2008 05:07 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP (Post 45044)
I'm definitely looking at this one in today's 4th at Hawthorne John.

He moved pretty good into fastest pace last race before falling apart late. Should be some value.

#3 Arches Arrow @ 6/1 ml

Total annihilation with a Hat Special ;)

tfm 12-18-2008 05:16 PM

I just watched the replay. Sat a very nice trip. Good one.

I suspect this might turn out to be a key race.

tfm 12-18-2008 05:44 PM

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Take a shot with A. U. Minor, FG, R8, #6.

Very nice close, against it, last time out.

Bet to win and under the chalk, Blackberry Road, in an exacta

Charlie D 12-18-2008 06:14 PM

Well done Teach ;) :)


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