Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Oaklawn's Dixieland Stakes
January 16, 2009
8th race

Here's my take on the race.

#1 Malibu Maverick -- Started his career well running three good races, each better than the next. Reacted to the top of August 13, but didn't regress too badly. Then ran well, then regressed to the same performance level. Ran about a length and a half better than his peak in the last race. This horse is sitting on a big race which might come today. Will that effort be enough? I don't know, but at 10-1 no one could be faulted for betting him.

#2 Silver City -- Began his racing running about the same as the above in June. Then ran better in his second out. His last race was impressive and makes him the horse who has run the fastest. The bad news is that race was almost eight lengths better than the race before. That takes a lot out of a horse. On the other hand you're supposed to keep betting them to move forward until they show you they can't. And he's a 3YO colt which means it's possible he could still move forward (unlikely). Even if he bounces, he might still win. However, at 9/5 he's a shaky investment at best.

#3 Dance Caller -- Hasn't run fast enough to be competetive and shows a bad pattern. No thanks.

#4 Back to Gold -- Has done nothing wrong, an improving horse who could easily explode today at 5-1. I'm not wild about the trainer's 10.7% win percentage. And the horse hasn't run fast enough to win this. I'd say he's a contender, but I'd want good odds on him to make a bet.

#5 Regardlessofoutcome -- Slow horse off a layoff. Trainer is 20.2% overall, but only 16.2% off a long layoff. At 5/2 he's a horrible bet in my opinion.

#6 My Man Moran -- A model of consistency. With the exception of his one route race all his efforts have been within half a length of each other. I see no reason to indicate improvement today and consider him an underlay at 15-1.

#7 Titranium -- Coolest name of the bunch; visions of Wonder Woman enter this twisted mind. :>) This horse is returning to a sprint today and has run well at that. Petalino has Eddie Martin onboard and they're 21.5% together. At 15-1 this is a viable longshot.

#8 He's Boy Wonder -- Ran well his first four races, each one better than the one before. His fourth out was about seven lengths better than his previous race. You'd expect him to bounce and he did. He last race indicated recovery and this horse could easily win today. At 9/2 he's probably the best value in the race.

The bet? That depends on the odds of course, but using 2-7-8 for exactas seem reasonable.