Any Insights on race 6 tomorrow at WRD appreciated
 

Hey guys and gals,

Sharon has a horse in tomorrow at Will Rogers Downs in race 6, pp 4. The horse is Bobbyn Bouie.

Since I'm still pretty new to this I'd be interested to know how some of you experts:)feel he will match-up tomorrow. Bouie is a hard knocking 6 year-old maiden who has suffered some of the worst racing luck I've ever seen. They've been running very fast times at WRD which is a little spooky.

Anyway, pm me if you need a copy of the past performances.

The Spokesman

I have the 1,3,4,6,8,10,12 as the only contenders. The other five horses are throwouts in my opinion. In addition, I think the 3 horse which is the morning line favorite is a strong bet against. I would certainly bet the 4 to win as the odds should be high and I would bet an exacta box of 4,6,10.

Charlie B

Hello
 

Using Val 4 (rdss is not taking WRD yet ) as instructed by Doc
I do not get the 4 as a final win contender

The 4 is well rated in turn time and hidden energy


I hope I'm wrong with my line selection and the 4 does it and wins
I did see 6 place finishes. I hope today is your win :)


Wishing you the best
Bill

Thanks to both of you for taking the time to do this. Sharon was most grateful. Bobbyn Bouie has been a project for her, for sure. When she got him he was 4 years old and fresh from the pasture. The owner insisted that he needed to race immediately and he was subsequently forced into a campaign without adequate preparation. In the beginning he was so green that he would throw up his head and whinny in the stretch. Two riders eased him because they thought he was having a heart attack! LOL. Gradually, the old gray started to figure it out and ran some big races, but by then he was 5 years old. So, here we are today at WRD.

Bill, I am very intrigued by your analysis in regards to "hidden energy". Could you be so kind as to elaborate? I'm also wondering how this method could be applied to the claiming of horses. We are looking at two in the 8th race tomorrow at Evangeline, Corey's Red Boy and Dancensing. Sharon and I prefer Dancensing but the prospective owner likes Corey's Red Boy. Is there any way to determine which horse displays the most potential via the energy programs?

Thanks so very much to you both.

'Hidden Energy' (HE, or HID) refers to an amalgamation of 2nd fraction energy and 3rd fraction energy ('hidden' because it's kind of difficult to extrapolate that from a raw racing form, thus hidden to the general public). Paradoxically, in shorter sprints, on many tracks (say, less than 6f) you tend to want to see good Late readings (F3) with some support from F2 reading (thus hidden, F2+F3).

This doesn't bode well for Dancesing who seems pointed for 6f and 5f distances. Per the middle panel, all his energy is distributed quite Early, which co-relates with why he has not been finishing races, though he's always up front positionally. He needs to learn how to rate his energy more, leaving more for the closing fraction - those red sticks should not be so far to the right.

Attachment 15856

Corey's Red Boy on the other hand shows ESP (the energy disbursement style, co-related to the E/L graph shown for Dancesing) skewed much more to the Presser, Sustained end of the energy spectrum, though he's been too slow so far to get near contention at the stretch since October.

Attachment 15855

The Match Up of everyone, FWIW, not that that's what you were asking about, per se. The #5 (Corey) and the #1 show the best Hidden and Late numbers while having decently ranked Total Energy (2nd and #3rd respectively). I am dubious about the #5 to win today, but at the M/L odds could possibly include him in an exacta box with the #3, #1.

Attachment 15857

Corey has produced 3 times a Total Energy in the mid to upper 168 range, ranking with the best today, though apparently not in good condition at the moment. Dancesing has never broken 167 Total Energy, and gives it up much too early. Of the two condidates, I'd recommend Corey for the claim for these shorter sprint distances(but I'll stick to betting :))

Good luck!

Ted

Bobbyn Bouie's chances
 

Spokesman: Normally, I'd not give much of a chance to a six year old maiden who's 0/31. However, after looking at this race, this just might be his day. He showed a liking for this track in his last out and has been racing at classier venues. I'd prefer to see him in a route rather than sprint, but he should be coming at the end, with the lightly-raced seven and two being his main threats...Good Luck to you...

if the SIX doesn't win it probably never will on APRIL 7th that is

bridesmaid

6th race - Will Rogers Downs - April 07, 2009
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
3 Tenth Power 7.20 6.00 3.40
6 Halo's Ko 3.60 3.20
8 Fan Expectation 8.40
BUT 2nd call maidens take the top two spots

Spokesman: Your horse ran a respectable fourth and was running pretty strong at the end. Paycheck time! Not a bad effort...

Thanks to everybody who analyzed this race. I believe Ted specifically mentioned #3 as a win candidate and just about everybody came up with the six. Very impressive.

It was very thoughtful of you guys to do this, and greatly appreciated.