Breeders Cup Marathon - Friday 11/6
 

"The Hat's" concepts on these marathons can be found here:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2026

Race 3 on Fridays card

The field

cont

Fh
 

Hi Rich
sorry I need to pass this one
too many FH's
Good Skill to you

Bill

Hi Bill

You can eliminate some FH using tandem. ie:

Father Time beaten by Mastery X 2 - OUT

You can use Muhannak's current form and last years running line to eliminate him.


So now your're only left with 2 FH and using Hats method of 6.2 per 1/5f you should be able to eliminate one or other that are left.

This is not The Hats Method of Matching, but it is it a kind of Matching and when we don't have A, B, C info we use what info we do have.

Mr Hat - "the speedfigures will tell you"

Look at Timeform ratings of Mastery and Man Of Iron, latter cannot beat former according to those - Man of Iron - OUT???

Charlie:

I've eliminated down to:
#1 Black Astor - a horse that should be on or near the lead at the mile call; can't win if its not. Last race was waaaay too fast early and it doesn't look like any burners in here, so this is my pace horse.

#3 Nite Light - probably right behind BA

#4 Cloudys Knight - who will close from either 4th or 5th

#6 Mastery - with only the comparable ratings of 117 which are the equal of Black Astor and a look at his last race.

My win candidates are the 1 and the 6.

Good luck tomorrow.

Good stuff Bill

Nite Light likes to be close to lead , so i think it will sit on shoulder or just in behind Black Astor, seeing BA off at around 10f

Mastery should be close in behind these two and the battle for winners circle will be between Mastery and Nite Light i reckon too, with Mastery coming out on top.


The lack of any real Pace pressure probably means anything not up near lead may be up severly disadvantaged.


Any 5-2 about and i'm on Mastery.

Result
 

The European hammering begins

That was anything but a hammering. If Homeister doesn't move too soon, the 4 wins easily. What else is new?