General Question or 2..
 

I have 2 questions I’ll pose as simple as possible, mainly to see the responses…

1) Has anyone documented simple steps to get from opening the race in RDSS to getting to the contender list? From a standpoint of if you handed someone off the street RDSS and loaded the card and got them to the race, walking them through the process of pacelines, then to the final contender list?


2) When I miss a race, I try to go back and see what I might have missed, a bad decision I made in selection, maybe missed a lone speed.. But there seem to be some races where you just can’t justify the winner and you did everything the right way… Do you all feel the same way? That some races just are enigmas?

Scott,

Re #1 - I was kind of thinking the several RDSS video tutorials, some rather lengthy, some just one race, did just about that. Of course there's endless in-fill, and every race is new (or a copy of a general 'template' event), but the process is mostly the same. Did you not find them so?

Re #2 - Occasionally a horse wins for no evident reason (or none that RDSS quantifies), and you should learn to laugh at those! Absolutely enigma's happen all the time. More often, I find there's always some readout which points to a winner being ready to run. But unless (or until) you can consistently know that this readout or that readout is the right one for any given race (as models can sometimes, but not always, tell you) - you will end up second guessing yourself, being frustrated that you had the winner, but just heeded the wrong readout.

So don't do that. Pick a few consistent analysis routines to begin with - consistent paceline selection, consistent elimination of non-contenders to 5 via Total Energy and Primary Line Score (Primary screen), hide unbettable favourites for the Win Pool (e.g. below 5/2) ranking on top of your BL/BL screen, then play the remaining 2 of top 3 for rank and best offered odds overlay, providing you can get net odds from your 2 Win bets which matches your recorded hit rate (your edge). Otherwise, pass the race or seek better value in other wager pools. Of course, there's lots more nuances to this, but that's a start, and can lead to a positive ROI (the holy grail for some, and a good start for us...)

When you lose because you bet the wrong 2 of top 3 horses, or the favourite beat you (and you couldn't tell if you should pass or wheel the favourite in an exacta, or hedge it to get your money back) - don't sweat it! Learn to lose, and embrace these. If you know your average hit rate per 20 events, and know your longest runout (losses in a row), each loss brings you closer to the next winner. Keep track of when a horse from BLBL 4th+ tiers (after hides) beats you and see what factors were important (lone E, too much E pressure and good S horse - BUT, don't be zigging and zagging to try to pick those horses each next race. Otherwise, you'll never get to what you know as 'consistent'. Consistently, you'll likely get at least a couple of double-digit winners per set of 20 I(and need them, depending on your hit rate), and zagging and zigging will miss them just when you needed them (and undoubtedly when everyone else is boasting about hitting them!!)

One useful thing you can do about what looks like an enigma to you now, is to ask publicly if anyone else had the horse, or a bet that profited by it, like you did the other night with your question about TP race #8, opening night. After a while, some of those might stop looking like enigmas!

Hope that helps! (And remember those 20 race wager workups - you have my email address...;))

Cheers,

Ted