Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Marathon @ SA 10f Turf (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6573)

Bill Lyster 01-24-2010 04:42 PM

Marathon @ SA 10f Turf
 
5 Attachment(s)
Conditions and entries. #3 scratched

Bill Lyster 01-24-2010 04:44 PM

2nd batch...
 
5 Attachment(s)
#6 ...thru 10

Bill Lyster 01-24-2010 05:01 PM

My analysis
 
1-136.4 on easy lead
2- best mile times come from 5th or so with no late gain
4-135.8 closes 9-8-2, not very accomplished, out
5-Has not been competitive for a while; best against v slow pace; not today
6-135.6 and 135.3; closes 6-5-2 and 6-2-1; a little concerned with no success beyond 9f; big favorite
7-135.8, closes well from 4th 4-2-1 2x; 4-2-2
8-135.0, closes 4-2-1
9-134.5 and 134.9 - two best mile times; looks to run fairly sustained and not close enough to lead; place and show horse for me.
10- 135.4 usually sits 2nd probably gets first run at leader

The 1 could get loose on the lead, but I think the 10 presses well enough to take lead at 8f mark. I think 10 reverses tandem on the 6 and fights the 8 for the win.

Good luck later today,

Bill Lyster 01-24-2010 07:45 PM

#4 scratched out

tfm 01-24-2010 08:04 PM

:9:, Riviera Cocktail @ >= 10:1

Bill Lyster 01-24-2010 08:17 PM

The Results - Ratzzz!
 
1 Attachment(s)
By a nose....


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