Tx: Gp R3 1/18/10
 

This is an example of a race whereby one of the top 4 tote-x-ray horses
was not within the top 5 BL/BL but either won or ran ITM.
Sorry but I do not have images of the TX, I use a worksheet to record the TX. All TX data was recorded at 2MTP
I will be submitting 9 more examples from my records.

In the example below the TX was 5-4-15-2. The 15 is the random horse
that was outside of my top 5. the results were: 5 won paid 11.00
The $1 exacta 5/15 paid 77.80.

Ernie

Tampa r3 1/14/10
 

In this example the TX at 2 MTP was 1-5-2-7. The #5 was outside my top 5
BL/BL and won paying 24.80.

In looking at the image for the PP's for the 5 the only line that was relevant to me was back 290 days on the dirt at MSW.
I made a judgement call not to use that line. Maybe other users would
have used that last line but I am reporting these results from my perspective.
After the race I entered that line for the #5 and it was first on the BL/BL
food chain.

Ernie

Tampa R2 1/13/2010
 

In this race the TX at 2 MTP was: 6-7-4-5. The #4 won and paid 35.00.
Even by using the last (best) line for the #4 RDSS places it 6th in TE and
out of the top 5 BL/BL.

Ernie

Tx: Penn r4 1/27/10
 

In this race there are 2 contenders that won and showed that were
out of the top 5 BL/BL but the TX had them flagged.

The TX was: 2-12-6-1 The #6 horse won and paid 11.00 although
the TE was 7th.The 2 showed and paid 22.00 and it was also out
of my top 5 BL/BL.
I have more examples that demonstrates that there
is more to the TX that meets the eye but I think I will give this a rest for a while.

Ernie

Ernie's Tote Xray Examples
 

Ernie, I hope you don't mind - I gathered your 4 Tote Xray examples into this one Thread, since they're all on the same topic, different illustrations on a theme.

Thanks for posting these! I think a point worth studying is that, at minimum, Tote Xray confidence can suggest a horse which at least belongs in exotic calculations where you may otherwise have eliminated it on every other readout, or where form is too old to trust by your normal metrics. Whether they're a Win candidate is a separate issue, but perhaps, like a high previous (e.g. early last year) CR ranking, perhaps consider this as an excuse to evaluate numbers from further back. Depending on price offered.

I might caution, both pro and con, that if the Tx rank also co-relates with the Top 4 Win Odds (even better if drifting above say 5-1) then that's reinforcement. On the other hand, if a Tx value comes from fairly small amounts of money in the Win or Place pools, and is out of whack completely with Win Odds, consider that there may be too little pool info to go on (unless the all Pool sizes are fairly small...).

Good work - hope to hear you cash on some of these!

Ted

Thanks for cleaning up my act. I should have done that.

Ernie

Thanks for your feedback.

Yes, I know that the tote usually is in synch with top 4 win odds.
I also promised BJennet that I would show examples of TX horses that
are outside of the top 5 BL/BL.

I first started looking at the tote for the exotics, in particular the exacta,
for which I need much improvement. I am doing ok at BTW and
if I was smart I should let well enough alone. But no I want to go to the next
level so I started tracking the top 4 TX for exacta hits and at last count it was in the 60-65% range.
Now there's a starting point. As I accumulated more races I began noticing
how outside horses were either winning or running ITM. Now I am thinking
this could be a window of opportunity. Yes, you are right some
of these outside horses are the color coded APV / CR. My RDSS contenders
take priority and I am using the TX as an ancillary tool. This is helping
me but this game is not a piece of cake.

I also see that you defaulted to the 3 Red, Green and yellow TX horses in 2.0.
Could you include that 4th TX horse ?

Regards,

Ernie

Thanks Ernie. The display of all Tote info is in flux, and I'm inclined to bring the Tx in line with other ranks using RED GREEN YELLOW for ranks 1,2,3 (rather than ranks 2,3,4), but YES I agree the 4th ranked Tx horse should be clearly labeled (and for Win Odds as well). Let's see!

Ted

Thanks. Ted, for your consideration.

Ernie

Joseph thanks you for your TX INSIGHTS.



Yet , how would one factor as a measureable value this apparently inside and outside the rdss numbers clue into the body of the program to alert users ?

Here in Las Vegas 2 players I know occasionally do nothing but track odds..

No doubt it is a phenomenon, but its inner workings remain a mystery to me.

It recalls the days of that famous radio show: I Love a Mystery.