Hello all, I'm Back.
 

Sorry for the I'm Back, I just couldn't help myself, forgive me.

I am wishing to practice 1-2 cards a day maybe 3-5 times a week, and was wanting to first ask a few questions to help me decide which tracks to maybe use.

I wish to use a track that would have racing for a good part of the year, not just a few months a year, a track with nice exotic's , but also a track you may find as difficult to get a handle on, dirt or not, doesn't matter too much to me, so I will wait for some response before I start.

Now I know we have an export button to help make models, and yes I watched the video a few times, but would still need more help to actually get started using the model spreadsheet, which is actually something I also would like to be able practice with the track I choose , because it will give me great experience with making models that will help me win more, which they are supposed to do, right??

I know MTR, Penn, PHI run all year , woodbine , so fla has 2 tracks, GP and Cal, but very different tracks, am I right? Socal is too many track's and variant's I think, but may work at least at SA, as the other are too short, no?

Now hopefully posting my picks will not be a problem, as I will post the following wagers
a win dutch, like Doc suggests, 2 horse win bet
a 3 horse exacta box
a 1 horse super key 1st and 2nd with the other 4 contenders
and using the 2 win bets , placing them in P3's and P4's for 8.00 and 16.00, for a dollar, using the follwing format ,2x2x2 and 2x2x2x2

Now this will be only paper wagers, no real money at stake as this will be my practice runs , but using real time races, hopefully bringing me up to speed and keeping me current, and also prevents me from doing any H-capping after the races, but before, so I will be putting it out for real, my best shots, and I know that in a month or 2 this will help me and hopefully some others tremendously, that is the purpose anyway, not to become a pest, but a real time practicer, willing to be critiqued by the best here on the board, as we have the best people here, and I will become so much better I think , doing this.

Ted let me know if I get carried away, but I will use the whole card, no more than 2 a day, and will bet each race, but will note the race where a pass should be done, by noting pass next to it, but will h-cap anyway, thank you.

Hope you all the best luck

Patrick,

PEN, MNR, WO have long seasons and have been known to have good mutuels and often reasonable field sizes. I can recommend them, and I know that some maintain decision models on them as well, so perhaps you can compare notes.

If you are proposing to use the Selections forum in lieu of placing actual wagers through an ADW during this initial run (great idea!) - consider using the Exotic Wager Calculator to speed up your posting (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...95&postcount=1) - you can cut and paste Exotics from that tool into your P&C messages. You don't want to be distracted from decision making at post-time by the need to publish your bets here, but you do need to practice time-management since you need to allow for time to interact with your ADW. When you begin to bet, and depending on how close to post-time you choose to bet, I'd advise not worrying about posting here your Selections. The only person you need to convince of your wagering strategies (and success) is yourself!

That needn't stop you from crowing over a few nice hits (after the fact), or from posting (perhaps in the Races of Interest Forum) a Problem Race for subsequent group analysis.

Good luck: use any 'failures' as an opportunity to learn...

Ted

Patrick: As I've mentioned to you before, learn how to win making 2 horse bets first and stick to one circuit as you learn. Forget about the exotics for now.

The margin for error even with 2 horse win bets is small, so you really have to practice, practice, practice and have a clear head to be able to grow the bankroll.

Once you learn how to succeed on the win side, then expand to exotics little by little if you wish. Doubles or Pick 3's can still take advantage of your win prowess without worrying about place, show, or 4th.

My 2 cents. Remember, what you are attempting to do, getting consistent just on the win side, is a very diffcult endeavor in and of itself.

54 You're right, win bets should be the focus, you got a track suggestion, as Doc said no track is too hard to tame.

I am still going to look into the super plays to get a look at how well the top 5 contenders do in filling out the super, could use help wagering it thou, I was thinking:

AB/AB/ABCDE/ABCDE or something alongs those lines.

Please remember this is just practice and starting with 5 contenders and working down to 2 of them, should give me good practice, which I am sure it will.

thanks

Hi Patrick,

As I recall you plan to try to get a big score on Ky Derby day. Since Churchill opens tomorrow, you may want to check it out for the next week leading up to the Derby.

Jim

Yes Jim

That was before reading and listening to the tapes, now reality set in and hitting the big score is not what Doc had in mind, thou it is what I need, it is not what I am doing, but CD is under water almost, no?

Patrick

Patrick,

Now you are thinking like an investor instead of a horse "player". Good for you. I am really rooting for you to turn your game around. Have not checked the weather at CD, but I will now. Thanks and best of luck. Hope you plan to play in the upcoming contest.

Jim

Before you get into exotics, you might want to read the 55% Solution document in the library. It has a lot of information as to whether the 5 contenders are the best prospects throughout the verticals.

Extremely GOOD advice in my opinion!

Great read , awesome info, makes one think there is hope for the future, thru practice and practice and modeling and more modeling, who would of thought of having a place model , not me, but this makes so much sense really, guess I am begining a long journey of winning, and it will require a lot of work, work that to me is fun and enjoyable, especially when patterns appear that show you how to win, and I must interpret them , and in reality they jump off the model at you, the hard part is making the model, so my excel studies must persisit, as I am still not quite up to par with excel spreadsheets yet, but I will be.

Thanks all for the suggestions

patrick