FPLR example -WRD R4 4/26
 

I thought Richie's FPLR post the other day was excellent and although
I never used the "Matchup" concepts, nor do I fully understand them,
there is no doubt that the "Matchup" is a solid winning technique.

So there I was playing "Will Rogers Downs" or "I never met a horse I didn't like".
I am up to race 4, a 5.5 f sprint. Looking at the PP's the
"FPLR" concept flashes in front of my eyes for the 7 horse. I am thinking ok,
let me go back and evaluate each contender based on Richie's post.
Fighting for the Lead from 1c-2c. Making a quick positional move from 1c-2c.
What horses have won from position 1 at the first call.
This is all my brain can handle at this time because I am also using
RDSS and also checking the Tote-X-Ray at 2MTP.

I saw the 7 horse fit the "FPLR" criteria and also the 1 horse was a strong
contender and at big odds. I also liked the 3 horse.
I am displaying the entire field and the summary results.
After running the contenders through RDSS the 1 and 7 were confirmed
as the two most early runners (displayed below). I also have noticed that in
these type of situations you can virtually discount Total Energy.

I am embarassed to report the bad decisions I made on subsequent races but this
race kept me in the black for the day.

I welcome critiques, comments from all of the "Matchers" out there.

Ernie

WRD R$ 4/26 Con'd
 

Continuing....

Hello

Question about the rdss tabs settings.

I have noticed through the read outs you have the adjusted tab open is this giving you a better read out for the match up and yes the I have to agree here the 7 horse was the horse to beat

To answer your question....I ALWAYS use the adjusted tab for my picks.
I believe it is more accurate but I never made a comparison.

Ernie

You are "DEAD ON BALLS" accurate with that statement!

A VERY GOOD observation!

The search for the early horse begins with the first call NOT the second call where the race is 67% to 75% over.

"Total energy" plays no part in whether or not an early horse can win.

In the right situation, the early horse that backs up will give you ALL THE TOTAL ENERGY YOU NEED in order to cash a ticket !!!

Hi Ernie
I'm liking the way you are using all your tools to evaluate the race. When you are using the adjusted lines it is important to see stuff like the E/L graph showing the 2 true early runners energy wise. When they also run early positionally you have confirmation of what you are looking at.

That is a real nice exacta pop if you jumped in and regardless real nice work and evaluation of the race.

There are many ways to skin the cat for cash :D

Thanks guys for the above feedback. I never gave much weight to the
first call. Every book I read always emphasized the importance of the 2nd call.
I would always base my decision making in sprints around the horses that were up there at the 2nd call.
So this has been an eye-opener for me.

Ernie

Here is my take on the second call. All you have to do is watch enough races, look at a lot of charts or look at the pp's. Many times a horse that is 1st or 2nd at the second call was actually 4th, 5th, etc . at the first call. Is this "really" the early horse? The REAL early horse is the horse that is 1st or a very close 2nd at the FIRST call. When "the hat" looked for the early horse, did he look at the first call or the second call? I'm sure you are going to find he looked at the first call. As I like to paraphrase him as saying, "Horse racing is an easy game. When the gate opens one horse gets the lead. If no other horse can pass it, it wins". I think THAT tells the story of "early".

Like Richie, I think you are doing good work here. Keep it up and good luck!

YOU ARE RIGHT...I never looked at it that way before.....and thanks.

Ernie