Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - Penn

Hi Rich...Here's my look at the race...

The first time through I like what I see with #9. Fought for 2 calls vs 22.3 47.2 113.0 then opened up a lead at the stretch call and held on to win. With that performance in mind I go back through the field looking at the other earlies.

#1 won WTW last out and also shows he can win OTE. I look at the pace for lines 1 and 4 and see they are much slower than #9. Add in the fighting #9 did and I prefer #9.

#5 is a sprinter stretching out and could be up there early today, but with the recent fades I can't see this one holding on.

#8 also faded badly in a sprint. Ran a decent race vs a similar pace as #9 in line 4, but off the recent lines I'm not going back on this one. OUT

#11 faded vs a slower 1c and 2c than #9 won last time. Still prefer #9.

With #9 dominating the other earlies in my mind and having the ability to fight, I will take him to win and #6 to run OTE and finish 2nd.

Good luck everyone.