Dmr r6 8/13
 

Another sprint race which demonstrates the significance of F1, E/EP, EPR, E/L,
SC and TT. I give more weight to F1, E/EP, EPR and E/L.

Although the number 1 horse did not race in 302 days it had that significant
5F workout within the last 2 weeks. In "How Will Your Horse Run Today".
William Scott has studied and documented the positiveness of the 5F workout
for layoff horses. It has worked for me many times before so I made a
judgemental call on the 1 horse. It also did not hurt to see that this horse
was a FPLR type as per his PP (which I can post if anyone is interested).
I considered the #1 in form and he was also number 1 for: E/L, E/EP, SC and
EPR.

The 8 horse was came out on top of the BL food chain with FI=1 and E/P=2.
The 8 horse also had won his last race by over 3 lengths and demonstrated
that he can make "power moves" (an expression that I recall after reading that
excellent post explaining the concepts of the "Match Up". So I bet the 1 and 8 to win.

I was worried about the low odds favorite (#9) busting the exacta considering he won his
last 2. The #3 horse could have also ran ITM. I admit I was lucky but I went
with the indicators above that my records have demonstrated to be very reliable.
And the high exacta payoffs justified this play


Ernie

PP for the 1 and 8 horses
 

The 8 horse was ITM last 10....He has to be part of any exotic.
The 1 horse will be contention also if he is in form. Not too many wins
but certainly an ITM contender.

Ernie

Del Mar
 

Nice work Ernie

Good to see your work and the great result

GS
Bill

P.S.
I saw you IM. No I was not able to do races from Del Mar today
trying to get a free weekend and to get to Del Mar

Thanks Bill....Have a great and profitable weekend at Del Mar.
I wish I could be there or at Saratoga and meet everyone
but I have family comittments.

Ernie

Ernie,

Good work, congratulations! I was at Del Mar today with Bill Lyster and we bet that race. We both had something completely different - and lost of course :o. On review, your picks seem self-evident and I can barely see what I was thinking... No computer today, just scraps of paper and an inscrutable DRF on my lap in a dim grandstand.

BTW, we checked out the Pacific Infield pavilion and it looks like a good spot for this weekend's gathering. Hope we can get some power electricity for the computers.

if I can, I'll blog a bit during the day. Bill, I sure hope you can make it home for Sunday. Park the rig in the back lot and come on in!

Ted

Thanks...wish I could be there and meet everybody.

Ernie

Nice hit, Ernie. Having the nerve to use #1 made your day. Clint Eastwood would be proud of you. "Yeah I'm using the layoff horse. You got a problem with that, punk?"

:>)

hello silent run.....please stop posting about this race:mad::)! i had the 1 in the "dime a day" contest @ xpressbet.(bet 1 horse, 1 race wps, be top money leader for the day and win $1,000) and for the 2nd time i finished 2nd.
i also had a choice about 2 horses last week(6-8) well i selected the 6 and the 8 wins! pays $30.00:mad:. oh well...
by the way nice hit!
ps i have the 3 in R1 @ dmr:o